Simulation of the Population-Level Responses of Fish to Hypoxia: Should We Expect Sampling to Detect Responses?

Rose, Kenneth A.; Creekmore, Sean; Sable, Shaye E.

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-54571-4_13

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…In a companion paper (Rose et al 2017a), we explore population responses of croaker under increased variability by using DO output from a hydrodynamics-water quality model, perform sensitivity analysis that varies some key model assumptions and values of inputs, and also perform simulations that also couple the severity of hypoxia to the availability of food for croaker. In a third paper (Rose et al 2017b), we impose interannual variability on the simulated croaker population response to hypoxia to evaluate the ability of field sampling to detect a known population-level effect.…”

Section: Discussion Hypoxia Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The population stabilized as a result of the calibration and also due to the density-dependent mortality of the late juveniles. Steady-state (but model-generated) recruitment was simulated to help isolate the effects of hypoxia; in nature, croaker recruitment (late summer, 190-200 mm) varies with a year-toyear coefficient of variation (mean/SD) of about 0.5 to 1 for Louisiana coastal waters (Rose et al 2017b).…”

Section: Calibration and Baselinementioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the Population Effects of Hypoxia on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Part 1—Model Description and Idealized Hypoxia

Rose

Creekmore

Thomas³

et al. 2017

Estuaries and Coasts

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We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of Atlantic croaker in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 × 800 spatial grid of 1-km 2 cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were specified daily for each grid cell and repeated for each year of the simulation. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage-and age-dependent, and the movement behavior of juveniles and adults was modeled based on temperature and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure effect submodels that converted time-varying exposures to low DO to reduced hourly growth, increased hourly mortality, and reduced annual fecundity. Results showed that 100 years of either mild or intermediate hypoxia produced small reductions in population abundance, while repeated severe hypoxia caused a 19% reduction in long-term population abundance. Relatively few individuals were exposed to low DO each hour, but many individuals experienced some exposure. The response was dominated by a 5% average reduction in annual fecundity of individuals. Under conditions of random sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years occurring in proportion to their historical frequency, the model predicted a 10% decrease in the long-term population abundance of croaker. A companion paper substitutes hourly DO values from a threedimensional water quality model for the idealized hypoxia and results in a more realistic population reduction of about 25%.

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Section: Discussion Hypoxia Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Calibration and Baselinementioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Population Effects of Hypoxia on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Part 1—Model Description and Idealized Hypoxia

Rose

Creekmore

Thomas³

et al. 2017

Estuaries and Coasts

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…The planning framework of The Coastal Master Plan is an iterative process between integrated coastal system models and an optimized planning tool (Brown et al, 2017;Groves et al, 2017) designed to consider both FRM metrics as well as co-benefits. A suite of models is employed to inform the Planning Tool, and these can undergo extensive revision and updating based on reviews from outside advisory panels (Cobell et al, 2017;Rose and Sable, 2013;Callaway et al, 2017). An Integrated Compartment Model (ICM) is used to forecast landscape change (White et al, 2016) and an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model (Cobell et al, 2017) determines fish and shellfish responses to simulate the coastal ecosystem response, which describe the co-benefits of the coastal Louisiana system.…”

Section: Louisiana Coastal Master Planning: Application Of Life Cycle...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Life cycle management of natural infrastructure: assessment of state of practice and current tools

Kurth,

Piercy,

Jackson

et al. 2024

Front. Built Environ.

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Design alternatives for traditional infrastructure are often compared in terms of expected–and often narrowly defined–costs and benefits to justify the selected plan. Taking a broader life cycle perspective in the benefit-cost evaluation process helps account for potentially rare, indirect, or accruing project benefits. Natural infrastructure design alternatives are generally difficult to compare to conventional alternatives due to their distinctly different costs and benefits. Natural infrastructure differs from conventional infrastructure in terms of performance and benefit development over time, lifespan, materials, intensity of intervention needs, and social and environmental benefits. This paper presents a life cycle framework that expands conventional life cycle analysis to capture other important and relevant aspects of natural and conventional infrastructure, enabling a more complete and equitable comparison of project costs and benefits. The framework consists of four dimensions: risk mitigation performance (e.g., traditional benefit of flood risk management), co-benefits, financial costs (life cycle cost analysis), and environmental costs (life cycle assessment). The framework takes current benefit cost analysis practice for both infrastructure types into account, is informed by existing life cycle evaluation methods and tools and is responsive to the unique needs and characteristics of natural infrastructure. Components of this framework have been advanced elsewhere, including in business product management, asset management, building code development, environmental certifications, ecosystem goods and services accounting, and others, but are generally not developed for natural infrastructure. Our proposed framework provides a roadmap for development of supporting resources to conduct life cycle evaluation for natural infrastructure. Systematically grasping the temporal flow of costs and benefits of natural infrastructure, in comparison to conventional flood risk management projects, will be important as societies address vast infrastructure needs in the face of climate change.

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Applying spatiotemporal models to monitoring data to quantify fish population responses to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

Ward

Oken

Rose

et al. 2018

Environ Monit Assess

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Quantifying the impacts of disturbances such as oil spills on marine species can be challenging. Natural environmental variability, human responses to the disturbance (e.g., fisheries closures), the complex life histories of the species being monitored, and limited pre-spill data can make detection of effects of oil spills difficult. Using long-term monitoring data from the state of Louisiana (USA), we applied novel spatiotemporal approaches to identify anomalies in species occurrence and catch rates. We included covariates (salinity, temperature, turbidity) to help isolate unusual events. While some species showed evidence of unlikely temporal anomalies in occurrence or catch rates, we found that the majority of the observed anomalies were also before the Deepwater Horizon event. Several species-gear combinations suggested upticks in the spatial variability immediately following the spill, but most species indicated no trend. Across species-gear combinations, there was no clear evidence for synchronous or asynchronous responses in occurrence or catch rates across sites following the spill. Our results are in general agreement to other analyses of monitoring data that detected small impacts, but in contrast to recent results from ecological modeling that showed much larger effects of the oil spill on fish and shellfish.

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Simulation of the Population-Level Responses of Fish to Hypoxia: Should We Expect Sampling to Detect Responses?

Cited by 4 publications

References 43 publications

Modeling the Population Effects of Hypoxia on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Part 1—Model Description and Idealized Hypoxia

Modeling the Population Effects of Hypoxia on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Part 1—Model Description and Idealized Hypoxia

Life cycle management of natural infrastructure: assessment of state of practice and current tools

Applying spatiotemporal models to monitoring data to quantify fish population responses to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

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