Simulation of water scarcity in a leap-forward developing arid region: a system dynamics model of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

Dai, Shanshan; Li, Lanhai; Xu, Honggang

doi:10.2166/wp.2017.132

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…During the study period, water resources in 82.40% of Xinjiang were in deficit, and previous researches had similar conclusions. Specifically, current water resources cannot meet leap-forward development in Xinjiang (Dai et al, 2017), and water resources in Alar, a city located in southern Xinjiang, also cannot satisfy demand for economic development (Liu et al, 2019). Fortunately, WSDD in 64.65% of the region that passed the trend analysis exhibited an increasing trend, and the areas with increased WSDD were mainly distributed in northern Xinjiang, indicating that water deficit in some areas of Xinjiang has been alleviated.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling and analyzing supply-demand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang from a perspective of ecosystem services

et al. 2022

J. Arid Land

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Water shortage is one bottleneck that limits economic and social developments in arid and semi-arid areas. As the impacts of climate change and human disturbance intensify across time, uncertainties in both water resource supplies and demands increase in arid and semi-arid areas. Taking a typical arid region in China, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, as an example, water yield depth (WYD) and water utilization depth (WUD) from 2002 to 2018 were simulated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and socioeconomic data. The supply-demand relationships of water resources were analyzed using the ecosystem service indices including water supply-demand difference (WSDD) and water supply rate (WSR). The internal factors in changes of WYD and WUD were explored using the controlled variable method. The results show that the supplydemand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang were in a slight deficit, but the deficit was alleviated due to increased precipitation and decreased WUD of irrigation. WYD generally experienced an increasing trend, and significant increase mainly occurred in the oasis areas surrounding both the Junggar Basin and Tarim Basin. WUD had a downward trend with a decline of 20.70%, especially in oasis areas. Water resources in most areas of Xinjiang were fully utilized and the utilization efficiency of water resources increased. The water yield module in the InVEST model was calibrated and validated using gauging station data in Xinjiang, and the result shows that the use of satellite-based water storage data helped to decrease the bias error of the InVEST model by 0.69×10 8 m 3 . This study analyzed water resource supplies and demands from a perspective of ecosystem services, which expanded the scope of the application of ecosystem services and increased the research perspective of water resource evaluation. The results could provide guidance for water resource management such as spatial allocation and structural optimization of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As WUD irr dominated changes in the total WUD in Xinjiang in the past years, it is important to continue prompt water-saving irrigation technologies and also control the expansion of cropland areas. Reasonable planning of the cropland layout and expansion is also needed (Lei et al, 2012;Dai et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and analyzing supply-demand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang from a perspective of ecosystem services

et al. 2022

J. Arid Land

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“…Xinjiang is one of the most popular ski areas in China, holding 37 ski resorts at the end of 2017. Compared with other ski destinations in China, Xinjiang is an arid area; researchers found that climate change combined with its economic development have significantly influenced the yearly average rainfall and water resource distribution pattern (Dai, Li, & Xu, ). Climate change mitigation is a non‐negligible issue for Xinjiang.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Will concerns for ski tourism promote pro‐environmental behaviour? An implication of protection motivation theory

Chen

Dai

Zhu

et al. 2019

Journal of Tourism Research

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Encouraging mitigation behaviour at the personal level is vital to address the issue of global climate change. However, despite numerous climate change communication campaigns, a large percentage of people still feel reluctant to engage in mitigation behaviours. In this paper, we reconsidered the gap between people's objective knowledge on climate change and their mitigation intention in tourism context. By applying protection motivation theory (PMT) and construal level theory (CLT), we accessed the mediating role of threat appraisal and coping appraisal in the context of ski tourism.The results indicate that generally, appraisal of climate change's threat on ski tourism mediates the relationship between knowledge and behavioural intention. Besides, the role of coping appraisal is also partially supported. By contextualizing this study in tourism context and also by separating generally response efficacy from that in terms of ski tourism, we verified the effect of proximising climate change on encouraging mitigation behaviour. This study contributes to existing literature by (i) empirically examining knowledge as an antecedent of PMT and also (ii) incorporating CLT to PMT in a tourism context. The findings have important implications for encouraging personal mitigation behaviours.

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“…Selecting a feedback intensity should consider whether the simulated dynamic adjustment is technically and financially feasible. In addition, it was observed that the exponential function and modified logistic function were used to describe the feedback relationship between state variables and regulatory variables [44,58]. Gain function, correlation function, and least square function were also used to dynamically modify the preset schemes [59].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics-Multiple Objective Optimization Model for Water Resource Management: A Case Study in Jiaxing City, China

Zhou

Wang

Huang

et al. 2021

Water

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Predicting and allocating water resources have become important tasks in water resource management. System dynamics and optimal planning models are widely applied to solve individual problems, but are seldom combined in studies. In this work, we developed a framework involving a system dynamics-multiple objective optimization (SD-MOO) model, which integrated the functions of simulation, policy control, and water allocation, and applied it to a case study of water management in Jiaxing, China to demonstrate the modeling. The predicted results of the case study showed that water shortage would not occur at a high-inflow level during 2018–2035 but would appear at mid- and low-inflow levels in 2025 and 2022, respectively. After we made dynamic adjustments to water use efficiency, economic growth, population growth, and water resource utilization, the predicted water shortage rates decreased by approximately 69–70% at the mid- and low-inflow levels in 2025 and 2035 compared to the scenarios without any adjustment strategies. Water allocation schemes obtained from the "prediction + dynamic regulation + optimization" framework were competitive in terms of social, economic and environmental benefits and flexibly satisfied the water demands. The case study demonstrated that the SD-MOO model framework could be an effective tool in achieving sustainable water resource management.

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Simulation of water scarcity in a leap-forward developing arid region: a system dynamics model of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

Cited by 10 publications

References 29 publications

Modeling and analyzing supply-demand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang from a perspective of ecosystem services

Modeling and analyzing supply-demand relationships of water resources in Xinjiang from a perspective of ecosystem services

Will concerns for ski tourism promote pro‐environmental behaviour? An implication of protection motivation theory

System Dynamics-Multiple Objective Optimization Model for Water Resource Management: A Case Study in Jiaxing City, China

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