Simulation study on the development decision of new energy manufacturers under the weight of consumption responsibility

Abstract

In 2019, China proposed the weight of consumption responsibility (WCR) policy for renewable energy. This study first analyzes the interaction between the electricity market and the green certificate market and establishes a two-market equilibrium model with multiple subjects. Secondly, a system dynamics model of the development decision of the new energy manufacturers (NEMs) under the interaction of the two markets is established. Finally, taking Henan province as an example, the development trend of NEMs is simulated, and sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore the key influencing factors for the development of NEMs. The results show that the electricity market and the green certificate market interact with each other mainly through the price of electricity and the price of green certificates, thus evolving the trading behavior of trading subjects. By 2035, for every 0.25% increase in non-hydropower WCR in Henan province, the annual added new energy installation will be around 1200 MW. In the current scenario, the policy of certificate multiplier will be detrimental to the overall development of NEMs, and a conservative investment strategy and accelerated technology improvements are more beneficial to NEMs. Carbon emission peaking and carbon neutrality policies can also accelerate the growth of new energy installations.