Simulations of future cardiometabolic disease and life expectancy under counterfactual obesity reduction scenarios

Bender, Anne Mette; Sørensen, Jan; Holm, Astrid Ledgaard; Simonsen, Kenneth; Diderichsen, Finn; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

doi:10.1016/j.pmedr.2020.101150

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“…Few quantitative studies have simulated the effects of population-based lifestyle interventions targeted at socioeconomically disadvantaged groups [10]. Health impact assessment (HIA) tools offer dynamic modeling of future population health [11][12][13] and can be used to model health effect changes in risk factors such as OWOB [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A health inequality impact assessment from reduction in overweight and obesity

et al. 2020

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Background In recent years, social differences in overweight and obesity (OWOB) have become more pronounced. Health impact assessments provide population-level scenario evaluations of changes in disease prevalence and risk factors. The objective of this study was to simulate the health effects of reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity in populations with short and medium education. Methods The DYNAMO-HIA tool was used to conduct a health inequality impact assessment of the future reduced disease prevalence (ischemic heart disease (IHD), diabetes, stroke, and multi-morbidity) and changes in life expectancy for the 2040-population of Copenhagen, Denmark (n = 742,130). We simulated an equalized weight scenario where the prevalence of OWOB in the population with short and medium education was reduced to the levels of the population with long education. Results A higher proportion of the population with short and medium education were OWOB relative to the population with long education. They also had a higher prevalence of cardiometabolic diseases. In the equalized weight scenario, the prevalence of diabetes in the population with short education was reduced by 8–10% for men and 12–13% for women. Life expectancy increased by one year among women with short education. Only small changes in prevalence and life expectancy related to stroke and IHD were observed. Conclusion Reducing the prevalence of OWOB in populations with short and medium education will reduce the future prevalence of cardiometabolic diseases, increase life expectancy, and reduce the social inequality in health. These simulations serve as reference points for public health debates.

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