Síndrome de muerte súbita y otras muertes infantiles súbitas e inesperadas: uso de un modelo logarítmico para analizar el comportamiento epidemiológico en Bogotá y en Colombia, 2005 y 2010

Latorre, María Luisa Avalos; Barbosa, Samuel; Hernández, Luis Jorge; Mage, David T.

doi:10.1016/j.rcpe.2015.07.002

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The South American country Colombia is also semi-tropical with wide changes in elevation, but no cold winter. There, the respiratory infection peak occurs during the rainy season that matches their SUID peak ( 36 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Acute Respiratory Infection of a Physiologically Anemic Infant is a More Likely Cause of SIDS than Neurological Prematurity

Mage¹,

Latorre²,

Jeník

et al. 2016

Front. Neurol.

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introduction: The cause of the sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is perhaps the oldest of unsolved mysteries of medicine, possibly dating back to Exodus in Biblical times when Egyptian children died in their sleep as if from a plague. It occurs when infants die unexpectedly with no sufficient cause of death found in a forensic autopsy, including death scene investigation and review of medical history. That SIDS is an X-linked recessive death from infectious respiratory disease of a physiologically anemic infant and not a simple anomalous cardiac or neurological condition is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence. If it were by a simple cause, it would have already been solved, with over 11,000 papers on SIDS listed now in PubMed. Our aim is to use mathematical models of SIDS to explain: (1) its 50% excess male death rate; (2) its 4-parameter lognormal distribution of ages at death; (3) its winter maxima and summer minima; and (4) its increasing rate with live-birth order.Methods: From extensive SIDS vital statistics data and published epidemiologic studies, we developed probability models to explain the mathematical behavior of SIDS meeting the four constraints mentioned above. We, then, compare these SIDS properties to infant death from acute respiratory infection (ARI), and infant death from encephalopathy, unspecified (EU).results: Comparisons show that SIDS are congruent with ARI and are not consistent with EU and that these probability models not only fit the SIDS data but they also predict and fit the male fraction of all infant and child mortality from birth through the first 5 years of their life.conclusion: SIDS are not rejected as an X-linked disease involving ARI and are not explained by a triple risk model that has been commonly accepted by the SIDS medical community, as implicating a neurological causation process in a subset of SIDS.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Acute Respiratory Infection of a Physiologically Anemic Infant is a More Likely Cause of SIDS than Neurological Prematurity

Mage¹,

Latorre²,

Jeník

et al. 2016

Front. Neurol.

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“…Therefore all SIDS are related to a possible source of an ARI. Table 3 shows SIDS LBO for Colombia, a semi-tropical South American country with a quite different climate and multiracial population than for North America and Europe [11,12]. Their child-care traditions and medical systems also have differences that may lead to difficulty in making Action on SIDS (ECAS) of some 20 countries, and additional non-ECAS SIDS cases from Ireland, Scotland, and New Zealand [13].…”

Section: The Infection Vector For Sidsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Respiratory Infection in Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS)

Mage¹,

Latorre²,

Jeník³

et al. 2016

Scandinavian Journal of Forensic Science

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Abstract:Introduction: The Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) is not likely to be explained by a currently measureable presence in all cases and absence in controls, as otherwise it would have been solved already. Indeed, any proposed physiological model for SIDS causation must explain the constant mathematical and statistical properties of SIDS age and gender. We have shown previously that SIDS are characterized by a common 4-parameter lognormal age distribution sparing neonatal infants, by a nominal 50% male excess, and by a higher rate in winter than summer. We test now whether SIDS is closely related to a fulminating prodromal Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) by a common increasing rate with the infants increasing Live Birth Order (LBO), all remaining the same, independent of the change in preferred sleeping positions of the infants, prone or supine. Methods: We use U.S. published infant mortality data from wonder.cdc.gov and other countries (Colombia, U.K., Europe, Australasia) to make comparisons between the two causes of death (ARI and SIDS) to evaluate how closely ARI resembles the characteristics of SIDS. Results: Gender: SIDS male excess 50%, ARI male excess 50%; Ages: SIDS 90% post-neonatal, ARI 96% post-neonatal; Seasonality: SIDS and ARI are higher in winter than summer; Live birth order: SIDS and ARI rates increase with increasing LBO with similar mathematical relationship. Conclusion: Our results show that all SIDS are very likely relatable to a single cause tied to a fulminating prodromal ARI in a physiologically anemic infant who is genetically (X-link recessive) susceptible to cerebral anoxia. An alternative cause of all SIDS death by a collection of subsets of different causes, such as brainstem-related respiratory abnormalities and cardiac QT abnormalities, is not supported because they cannot all have the same age-gender-seasonal-familial-distributions of SIDS, required by Cramér's Theorem.

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Síndrome de muerte súbita y otras muertes infantiles súbitas e inesperadas: uso de un modelo logarítmico para analizar el comportamiento epidemiológico en Bogotá y en Colombia, 2005 y 2010

Cited by 2 publications

References 16 publications

An Acute Respiratory Infection of a Physiologically Anemic Infant is a More Likely Cause of SIDS than Neurological Prematurity

An Acute Respiratory Infection of a Physiologically Anemic Infant is a More Likely Cause of SIDS than Neurological Prematurity

The Role of Respiratory Infection in Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS)

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