Single-year and double-year El Niños

Gao, Zongting; Hu, Zeng‐Zhen; Zheng, Fei; Li, Xiaofan; Li, Shangfeng; Zhang, Banglin

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06425-8

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…El Niño and La Niña are asymmetric in many aspects. For example, on average, El Niño is stronger than La Niña, and La Niña has a longer duration than El Niño (Capotondi et al, 2015; Choi et al, 2013; Gao et al, 2023). The ENSO asymmetry may lead to an asymmetric impact on atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies in East Asia (Hu et al, 2020b; Liu et al, 2015).…”

Section: Symmetric and Asymmetric Impact Of El Niño And La Niñamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of ENSO‐related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia: A robustness revisit

Liu,

Hu,

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal climate predictability and a key predictor for East Asian precipitation. However, the impacts of ENSO on East Asian precipitation are extremely complex and still controversial. Thus, it is necessary and significant to use various (observational and model) data sources to further examine the robustness of the impacts. This study revisits the evolution of the ENSO‐related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia, including symmetric and asymmetric impacts of El Niños and La Niñas, the differences in the influences of eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niños, and the interdecadal change of ENSO influences. The ENSO impact on East Asian precipitation has weakened (strengthened) in the ENSO's developing (decay) phase in the recent two decades. The ENSO impacts are robust in (i) southern China‐lower reaches of the Yangtze River‐southern Japan around the ENSO's mature phase, (ii) western North China in the developing phase and (iii) southwestern China in the decay phase. The distribution of East Asian precipitation anomalies is asymmetric in El Niño and La Niña years. The model simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature generally reproduce the observed evolution of seasonal precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and confirm the robust impact of ENSO in East Asia. These results indicate the necessity to consider the asymmetric impact of El Niños and La Niñas, to distinguish the El Niño flavours for their impact on the East Asian climate, and to include the interdecadal variation of ENSO influence in addressing East Asian climate anomalies.

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Section: Symmetric and Asymmetric Impact Of El Niño And La Niñamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of ENSO‐related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia: A robustness revisit

Liu,

Hu,

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…ENSO evolution is asymmetric. For example, La Niña events are usually lasted for two years (Hu et al 2014, Gao et al 2023 or even persisted for three years (tripledip events), such as the event in 1973-76 and 1998-2001. The persistent cold SST anomalies have been observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific since 2020, indicating a new triple-dip La Niña event after 1998-2001 (Jones 2022, Fang et al 2023.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Triple-dip La Niña in 2020–23: understanding the role of the annual cycle in tropical Pacific SST

Jiang

Zhu

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The triple-dip La Niña in 2020-23 is characterized by persisting southeasterly wind anomalies over the tropical central and eastern Pacific. Our results show that the wind anomalies are associated with the anomalously negative phase of the first two leading modes of the annual cycle (antisymmetric and symmetric modes about the equator) of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. The two modes account for 82.2% and 13.5% of the total variance, linking to the seasonal swing of SST between the northern and southern hemispheres and the temporal evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. During 2020-23, the persistently and anomalously negative phase of the symmetric mode enhances easterly wind over the tropical central Pacific, while the antisymmetric mode strengthens the southeasterly wind over the tropical eastern Pacific. The anomalously negative phase of the antisymmetric mode is associated with the contrast of SST anomalies between the northern and southern hemispheres, which provided a favorable background for the triple-dip La Niña in 2020-23.

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“…According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Oceanic Niño Index definition for ENSO, among the total of 20 El Niño events during 1951–2023 (Figure S1 in Supporting Information ), 15 (75%) were 1‐year duration and 5 (25%) persisted for 2 years. Among a total of 13 La Niña events, 4 (31%) were 1 year, 6 (46%) lasted 2 years (double‐dip events), and 3 (23%) persisted for 3 years (triple‐dip events) (Z. Gao et al., 2023). This asymmetry in multi‐year El Niño and La Niña events represents a deviation from a pure cyclic behavior of ENSO, which can not be fully explained by the original recharge oscillator theory (Z.‐Z.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among a total of 13 La Niña events, 4 (31%) were 1 year, 6 (46%) lasted 2 years (double-dip events), and 3 (23%) persisted for 3 years (triple-dip events) (Z. Gao et al, 2023). This asymmetry in multi-year El Niño and La Niña events represents a deviation from a pure cyclic behavior of ENSO, which can not be fully explained by the original recharge oscillator theory (Z.-Z.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Triple‐Dip La Niñas in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023: Impact of Mean State Changes

Li,

Hu,

McPhaden

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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This study compares the evolution of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies as well as predictions for the two most recent triple‐dip La Niña events in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023. Subsurface cooling in the equatorial Pacific was stronger and more persistent during 1998–2001. In contrast, surface easterly winds were stronger during 2020–2023 as was the east‐west sea surface temperature (SST) contrast along the equator. We argue that in the absence of appreciable equatorial Pacific heat discharge, persistent and strong surface trade winds and a strengthened mean zonal SST contrast across the tropical Pacific contributed to the development of the 2020–2023 triple‐dip La Niña. In terms of the subsurface layer heat budget, the growth and maintenance of unusually cold SSTs during the triple‐dip La Niña in 1998–2001 were mainly the result of ocean vertical entrainment and diffusion, as well as meridional advection, associated with enhanced equatorial upwelling; while for the triple‐dip La Niña in 2020–2023, zonal advection was the largest contributor. The two events were mostly well predicted by multi‐model averages at 1–8 months lead times. We hypothesize that mean state change with enhanced zonal SST contrast and trade winds over the last several decades altered the physical processes associated with the growth and maintenance of the most recent La Niña, affecting its predictability. Successful prediction in real‐time of the 2020–2023 event more than half a year in advance was surprising because there was little memory in oceanic heat content which is often considered a key predictor.

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Single-year and double-year El Niños

Cited by 14 publications

References 37 publications

Evolution of ENSO‐related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia: A robustness revisit

Evolution of ENSO‐related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia: A robustness revisit

Triple-dip La Niña in 2020–23: understanding the role of the annual cycle in tropical Pacific SST

Triple‐Dip La Niñas in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023: Impact of Mean State Changes

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