Six‐decade trend in minute‐scale short‐duration intense precipitation in Beijing and its association with urbanization

Abstract

Understanding the characteristics of minute‐scale short‐duration intense rainfall and its possible link with urbanization is valuable for addressing urban climate change and evaluating biases in high‐resolution historical precipitation data series. This study analyses the long‐term trends of rainy‐season minute‐scale intense rainfall events at different continuous time periods based on precipitation data from 20 national meteorological stations in the Beijing area covering the period from 1961 to 2021. This study shows that during the whole period analysed, the number of events of intense rainfall lasting 15 min or longer decreased, while the number of shorter‐duration events and the accumulated precipitation increased. The frequency and amount of minute‐scale intense rainfall recorded by urban stations are generally higher than those recorded by rural stations in terms of climatological means. The signal of the urbanization effect in minute‐scale precipitation changes is detectable, with the contribution of urbanization to the trends in average precipitation of 30‐min intense rainfall being 68.8%, whereas the contributions with respect to the frequency of 20‐ and 30‐min intense rainfall and the maximum precipitation of intense rainfall with a duration of 45 min reach 100%. The results of the analysis can provide reference for understanding long‐term changes in short‐duration rainfall and the possibility that they are driven by local anthropogenic activity, as well as bias in the minute‐scale precipitation data series of urban observation sites when they are used in studies of large‐scale intense precipitation changes.