Skeeter Buster: A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Modeling Tool for Studying Aedes aegypti Population Replacement and Population Suppression Strategies

Mágori, Krisztián; Legros, Mathieu; Puente, Molly; Focks, Dana A.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Gould, Fred

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000508

Cited by 155 publications

(215 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Uncertainty analysis 25 on a stochastic spatial model of Ae. aegypti population dynamics 26 confirmed that current parameters estimates related to larval density dependence are associated with a large portion of the uncertainty for model-based predictions of mosquito population density. Increasing the amount of field data on density dependence in larval populations would help reduce uncertainty in model predictions of population densities and help better understand the impact of control methods on dengue virus infections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 52%

Regulation of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics in Field Systems: Quantifying Direct and Delayed Density Dependence

Walsh¹,

Aguilar²,

Facchinelli³

et al. 2013

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. Transgenic strains of Aedes aegypti have been engineered to help control transmission of dengue virus. Although resources have been invested in developing the strains, we lack data on the ecology of mosquitoes that could impact the success of this approach. Although studies of intra-specific competition have been conducted using Ae. aegypti larvae, none of these studies examine mixed age cohorts at densities that occur in the field, with natural nutrient levels. Experiments were conducted in Mexico to determine the impact of direct and delayed density dependence on Ae. aegypti populations. Natural water, food, and larval densities were used to estimate the impacts of density dependence on larval survival, development, and adult body size. Direct and delayed density-dependent factors had a significant impact on larval survival, larval development, and adult body size. These results indicate that control methods attempting to reduce mosquito populations may be counteracted by density-dependent population regulation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 52%

Regulation of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics in Field Systems: Quantifying Direct and Delayed Density Dependence

Walsh¹,

Aguilar²,

Facchinelli³

et al. 2013

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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“…The conclusion from this analysis is that modifier loci can easily select alleles that affect the population dynamics, and when they occur in stable equilibria, they generally are in linkage disequilibrium with the driven locus. The very rapid fixation of MCR may preclude the invasion of such modifiers, but in any case there is already machinery for analysis of such modifiers (Rasgon and Gould 2005;Magori et al 2009). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Manipulation of Natural Populations by the Mutagenic Chain Reaction

et al. 2015

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The use of recombinant genetic technologies for population manipulation has mostly remained an abstract idea due to the lack of a suitable means to drive novel gene constructs to high frequency in populations. Recently Gantz and Bier showed that the use of CRISPR/Cas9 technology could provide an artificial drive mechanism, the so-called mutagenic chain reaction (MCR), which could lead to rapid fixation of even a deleterious introduced allele. We establish the near equivalence of this system to other gene drive models and review the results of simple models showing that, when there is a fitness cost to the MCR allele, an internal equilibrium may exist that is usually unstable. In this case, introductions must be at a frequency above this critical point for the successful invasion of the MCR allele. We obtain estimates of fixation and invasion probabilities for the appropriate scenarios. Finally, we discuss how polymorphism in natural populations may introduce sources of natural resistance to MCR invasion. These modeling results have important implications for application of MCR in natural populations.KEYWORDS mutagenic chain reaction; whole population replacement; CRISPR/Cas9; gene drive T HE prospect of introducing a novel gene into a population and having it spread to high frequency holds great promise for biological control. Such technologies could provide a means of control of highly pesticide-resistant crop pests and disease vectors (Bourtzis and Hendrichs 2014). But the possibility of uncontrolled spread of this artificial genetic material once introduced drives a need to thoroughly understand the population dynamics and behavior of these artificial drive systems (Bohannon 2015). With few exceptions (Hoffmann et al. 2011), the practicality of such introductions has been limited by the lack of a means to ensure the spread of the engineered genetic material through a population. In a recent article, Gantz and Bier (2015) describe the mutagenic chain reaction (MCR), an approach that employs the CRISPR/Cas9 system to drive a mutation to high frequency in a population, making gene replacement at the population level practical for any species that can be made to accept a transgene in the laboratory.There is, in fact, an extensive literature on "gene drive" systems that can transform entire populations (reviewed in Sinkins and Gould 2006, Gould 2008, and Burt 2014 and going back to Curtis 1968and Foster et al. 1972. The work of Burt and colleagues (Burt 2003;Deredec et al. 2008;North et al. 2013) considering the population genetics of homing endonucleases as a means to transform entire populations is particularly relevant, and much of what we describe below is a specific application of the general principles developed earlier and applied to MCR. Because Gantz and Bier's CRISPR/ Cas9-mediated method is unique at the molecular level and because of the interest received by their recent publication (Gantz and Bier 2015), we use their term "mutagenic chain reaction," even though formally it is a special case ...

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“…aegypti is the lack of adequate data for validation. Most models seek to represent the temporal dynamic response to climate and endogenous forces (Focks et al, 1993;Ferreira and Yang, 2003;Williams et al, 2013), while others consider the spatial-temporal dynamic by introducing dispersal mechanisms (Otero, Schweigmann and Solari, 2008;Magori et al, 2009;Almeida et al, 2010).…”

Section: Population Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dispersal between cells is modulated by the availability of breeding sites. A similar approach considered both the spatial distribution of breeding sites and the dynamics of the aquatic stage of the mosquitoes (larvae and pupae) (Focks et al, 1993;Magori et al, 2009).…”

Section: Population Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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2018

Harmonisation of Regulatory Oversight in Biotechnology

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This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries.This document, as well as any data and any map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.Please cite this publication as: OECD (2018) The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.Photo credits: Cover © Maks Ershov.Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm. © OECD 2018You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of the source and copyright owner(s) is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to rights@oecd.org. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at info@copyright.com or the Centre francais d'exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at contact@cfcopies.com. FOREWORD │ 3SAFETY ASSESSMENTOF TRANSGENIC ORGANISMSIN THE ENVIRONMENT, VOLUME 8 © OECD 2018 ForewordModern biotechnologies are applied to plants species (crops, flowers, trees), animals and micro-organisms. The safety of the resulting transgenic organisms when released in the environment for their use in agriculture, forestry, the food and feed industry or for other applications represents a challenging issue. Genetically engineered products are rigorously assessed by their developers during their elaboration, and by governments when ready for release, to ensure high safety standards. This remains essential with new biotechnology developments using insects to fight against disease outbreaks: engineered mosquitoes need to be evaluated through a scientifically sound approach to risk/safety assessment that will inform biosafety regulators and support the decision concerning the release of these novel organisms in the environment.The OECD offers a long-standing recognised expertise in biosafety and contributes to facilitating an harmonised approach. The OECD's Working Group on Harmonisation of Regulatory Oversight in Biotechnology (WG-HROB) was established in 1995. The WG-HROB gathers national authorities responsible for the environmental risk/safety assessment of products of modern biotechnology in OECD countries and other economies. International organisations and experts involved in biosafety activities are a...

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Skeeter Buster: A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Modeling Tool for Studying Aedes aegypti Population Replacement and Population Suppression Strategies

Cited by 155 publications

References 46 publications

Regulation of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics in Field Systems: Quantifying Direct and Delayed Density Dependence

Regulation of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics in Field Systems: Quantifying Direct and Delayed Density Dependence

Modeling the Manipulation of Natural Populations by the Mutagenic Chain Reaction

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