The augmentation variety of a knot is the locus, in the 3-dimensional coefficient space of the knot contact homology dg-algebra, where the algebra admits a unital chain map to the complex numbers. We explain how to express the Alexander polynomial of a knot in terms of the augmentation variety: it is the exponential of the integral of a ratio of two partial derivatives. The expression is derived from a description of the Alexander polynomial as a count of Floer strips and holomorphic annuli, in the cotangent bundle of Euclidean 3-space, stretching between a Lagrangian with the topology of the knot complement and the zero-section, and from a description of the boundary of the moduli space of such annuli with one positive puncture. Contents 1. Introduction 2.2. The Alexander polynomial via Morse theory 3. Flow loops, flow lines, and holomorphic curves 3.1. Models of L K and M K 3.2. Holomorphic annuli 4. Knot contact homology, augmentations, and linearized homology computations 4.1. Geometry of coefficients in the dg-algebra of knot contact homology 4.2. The augmentation variety and the augmentation polynomial 4.3. Linearized contact homology computations and the augmentation variety 5. From knot contact homology to the Alexander polynomial 5.1. Gluing results for moduli spaces of once punctured annuli 5.2. The boundary of the space of punctured annuli 5.3. Curve counts at infinity 5.4. Counting Floer strips 5.5. Proof of Theorem 1.2 5.6. Independence of choices 6. Examples 6.1. The right-handed trefoil 6.2. Other examples 7. Disk potentials, SFT-stretching, and a deformation of the Alexander polynomial 7.1. Basic disk potentials and SFT-stretching 7.2. Invariance of Floer torsion 7.3. Deformation of the Alexander polynomial for fibered knots 7.4. Deformation of the Alexander polynomial for non-fibered knots References