Estimating cascade size and nodes' in uence is a fundamental task in social, technological, and biological networks. Yet this task is extremely challenging due to the sheer size and the structural heterogeneity of networks. We investigate a new in uence measure, termed outward in uence (OI), de ned as the (expected) number of nodes that a subset of nodes S will activate, excluding the nodes in S. Thus, OI equals, the de facto standard measure, in uence spread of S minus |S |. OI is not only more informative for nodes with small in uence, but also, critical in designing new e ective sampling and statistical estimation methods.Based on OI, we propose SIEA/SOIEA, novel methods to estimate in uence spread/outward in uence at scale and with rigorous theoretical guarantees. The proposed methods are built on two novel components 1) IICP an important sampling method for outward in uence; and 2) RSA, a robust mean estimation method that minimize the number of samples through analyzing variance and range of random variables. Compared to the state-of-the art for in uence estimation, SIEA is Ω(log 4 n) times faster in theory and up to several orders of magnitude faster in practice. For the rst time, in uence of nodes in the networks of billions of edges can be estimated with high accuracy within a few minutes. Our comprehensive experiments on real-world networks also give evidence against the popular practice of using a xed number, e.g. 10K or 20K, of samples to compute the "ground truth" for in uence spread.