Skillful prediction of length of day one year ahead in multiple decadal prediction systems

Abstract

Despite a small amplitude, Length of Day (LOD) change, which varies from one year to another due to changes in Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM), determines the accuracy of Global Positioning System (GPS) time calculation. In this study, we examine the prediction skill of LOD and AAM in nine decadal prediction systems archived for the Decadal Climate Prediction Project. A persistence and rebound in LOD prediction skill at one year or longer lead time is found in most models. A poleward propagation of AAM anomaly via wave-mean flow interaction is also qualitatively well reproduced. This long-lead prediction of LOD and AAM is attributed to reliable predictions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the former being more systematically related than the latter. This result indicates that the improved ENSO prediction and atmospheric wave-mean flow interaction may lead to better prediction of LOD, AAM and related extratropical climate in the decadal prediction systems.