Small Area Estimation of Food Insecurity in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plain

Abstract

Achieving food security for all citizens is an important policy issue in India. While the existing data based on socio-economic surveys provide accurate estimates of food insecurity indicators at state and national level, due to small sample sizes, the surveys cannot be used directly to produce reliable estimates at the district or lower administrative levels. The availability of reliable and representative disaggregated measures of food insecurity is necessary for effective policy planning and monitoring, as food insecurity is often distributed unevenly within relatively small areas. This article explores a small area estimation (SAE) approach to derive reliable and representative estimates of food insecurity prevalence (FIP), gap (FIG), and severity (FIS) among people in different districts of the rural areas of the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plain (EIGP) region by linking the latest round of available data from the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey collected by the National Sample Survey Office of India as well as the latest available Indian Population Census data. District-specific food insecurity indicators such as FIP, FIG, and FIS were estimated based on a recommended threshold of per capita caloric intake of 2400 kilocalories per day, as defined by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. Spatial maps showing district-level inequality in the distribution of the indicators of food insecurity among the population in the EIGP region are also produced. Our disaggregated estimates can provide district-specific focused insights into food insecurity to policy analysts and decision-makers, and could thereby prove to be useful and relevant to the U.N. Sustainable Development Goal Indicator 2.1.2.