We study the probability of generating a finite simple group, together with its generalisation P G,soc G (d), the conditional probability of generating an almost simple finite group G by d elements, given that these elements generate G/ soc G. We prove that P G,soc G (2) 53/90, with equality if and only if G is A 6 or S 6 , and establish a similar result for P G,soc G (3). Positive answers to longstanding questions of Wiegold on direct products, and of Mel nikov on profinite groups, as well as to a conjecture of Holt and Stather, follow easily from our results.