Small Family, Happy Family? Fertility Preferences and the Quantity–Quality Trade-Off in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

To attenuate the adverse effects of high population growth in low-income countries and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, knowledge on rural fertility preferences and the existence of a quantity-quality trade-off between the number of children and child-raising quality is key. To tackle this, we implement a choice experiment in Senegal and Uganda. We include three quality and one quantity aspect of child-raising, and three socio-economic drivers of fertility, resulting in a comprehensive assessment. We show that rural households prefer to have many children, but women and non-poor respondents demonstrate a lower preference for many children than men and poor respondents. We nd that the quantity-quality trade-off is a two-sided story. On the one hand, for most of the quality attributes, we con rm the existence of a trade-off. On the other hand, quantity and quality are complementary when all children in the household can attain a lower secondary school diploma. Our results imply that broadening the currently narrow focus on contraceptive uptake in family planning programs, and more speci c targeting of such programs to people with low fertility preferences, could improve their effectiveness.JEL codes J10, J13, J19 (4.7 and 5.1 for Senegal and Uganda respectively in 2017), therefore remaining in the pre-demographic dividend[2] phase. Moreover, both countries experience low secondary completion rates, high prevalence of undernourishment, child mortality, and other problems connected to high fertility rates (World Bank, 2020).[1] The number of childbirths a woman would have if she were to live to the end of her reproductive life and bear children in accordance with age-speci c fertility rates of the speci ed year.[2] The demographic dividend corresponds to a period in a country's demographic transition when the ratio of work age population to young dependents increases rapidly due to a fast decline in the country's fertility. This leads to a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth as there are more people in the labour force and less people to support. Literature ReviewThe demographic transition theory describes the evolution in society from high mortality and fertility rates, to low mortality and fertility rates. The driving forces behind the demographic transition, and especially those that reduce fertility, continue to be a source of discussion among demographers and economists. Three main models are put forward: economic and investment models, risk and mortality models, and cultural transmission models (Shenk et al., 2013). Economic and investment models mainly focus on the inverse correlation between income and population growth. Risk and mortality models consider fertility reduction to be the logical consequence of the reduction in infant mortality. When the chances of children surviving the rst ve dangerous years are higher, parents will reduce their fertility accordingly (Bousmah, 2017). Cultural transmission models explain the demographic transition through societies' perception of childre...

Prevalence and Determinants of Contraceptive Use Among Men in Tanzania: Analysis of Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey 2022

“…The overall prevalence of contraceptive use among men aged 15-49 in Tanzania is very low (26%). Little involvement of men in family planning issues might result into over population, poor maternal and child health outcomes, and impact on family well-being (Mosha & Ruben, 2013;Mzee, 2016;Van Hoyweghen et al, 2023). The signi cant factors to contraceptive use included age, education level, wealth quantile, occupation, parity and knowledge on contraceptive use.…”