Small ice cap instability in the presence of fluctuations

Lee, Wan-Ho; North, GR

doi:10.1007/bf00215010

Cited by 23 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 13 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In addition, there is also a striking phenomenon poleward of x s ' 0.95, the so-called small ice cap instability (e.g., North 1984): beyond some latitude, the slope of x s versus Q turns negative, implying that the polar ice cap can only be stable if it extends past some finite latitude. The reasons for this behavior has been analyzed in detail in simple systems (e.g., Lindzen and Farrell 1977;North 1984), though its presence in more complete climate models is still discussed (e.g., Crowley et al 1994;Lee and North 1995;Langen and Alexeev 2004;Rose and Marshall 2009;Enderton and Marshall 2009).…”

Section: Temperature Perspectivementioning

confidence: 99%

Notes on a Catastrophe: A Feedback Analysis of Snowball Earth

Roe

Baker

2010

Journal of Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The language of feedbacks is ubiquitous in contemporary earth sciences, and the framework of feedback analysis is a powerful tool for diagnosing the relative strengths of the myriad mutual interactions that occur in complex dynamical systems. The ice albedo feedback is widely taught as the classic example of a climate feedback. Moreover, its potential to initiate a collapse to a completely glaciated snowball earth is widely taught as the classic example of a climate ''tipping point.'' A feedback analysis of the snowball earth phenomenon in simple, zonal mean energy balance models clearly reveals the physics of the snowball instability and its dependence on climate parameters. The analysis can also be used to illustrate some fundamental properties of climate feedbacks: how feedback strength changes as a function of mean climate state; how small changes in individual feedbacks can cause large changes in the system sensitivity; and last, how the strength and even the sign of the feedback is dependent on the climate variable in question.

show abstract

Section: Temperature Perspectivementioning

confidence: 99%

Notes on a Catastrophe: A Feedback Analysis of Snowball Earth

Roe

Baker

2010

Journal of Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Ferreira et al (2011) and Rose et al (2013) even found three stable states in a complex model with idealised ocean geometry. Climate variability plays an important role for the likelihood of transitions between such states, and for their reversibility (Lee and North, 1995), and thus needs to be considered to understand the evolution of climate in the Earth's deep past.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. We examine the relationship between the mean and the variability of Arctic sea-ice coverage and volume in a large range of climates from globally ice-covered to globally ice-free conditions. Using a hierarchy of two column models and several comprehensive Earth system models, we consolidate the results of earlier studies and show that mechanisms found in simple models also dominate the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice in complex models. In contrast to predictions based on very idealised dynamical systems, we find a consistent and robust decrease of variance and autocorrelation of sea-ice volume before summer sea ice is lost. We attribute this to the fact that thinner ice can adjust more quickly to perturbations. Thereafter, the autocorrelation increases, mainly because it becomes dominated by the ocean water's large heat capacity when the ice-free season becomes longer. We show that these changes are robust to the nature and origin of climate variability in the models and do not depend on whether Arctic sea-ice loss occurs abruptly or irreversibly. We also show that our climate is changing too rapidly to detect reliable changes in autocorrelation of annual time series. Based on these results, the prospects of detecting statistical early warning signals before an abrupt sea-ice loss at a "tipping point" seem very limited. However, the robust relation between state and variability can be useful to build simple stochastic climate models and to make inferences about past and future sea-ice variability from only short observations or reconstructions.

show abstract

“…Second, snow cover may alter regional climate and surface mass balance through the snow-albedo feedback. This second mechanism may simply act as an amplifier but can also lead to instability and irreversible transitions in idealized models (Lee and North 1995), although such instability is poorly understood in the context of glacial inception. Our main focus is the first mechanism (reversible ice cap growth), but we also address the second (regional snow-albedo feedback).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial Inception on Baffin Island: The Role of Insolation, Meteorology, and Topography

Birch

Cronin²,

Tziperman

2017

Journal of Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Geologic evidence suggests that the last glacial inception (115 kya) occurred within the mountains of Baffin Island. Global climate models (GCMs) have difficulty simulating this climate transition, likely because of their coarse horizontal resolution that smooths topography and necessitates the use of cumulus parameterizations. A regional configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used to simulate the small-scale topographic and cloud processes neglected by GCMs, and the sensitivity of the region to Milankovitch forcing, topography, and meteorology is tested. It is found that ice growth is possible with 115-kya insolation, realistic topography, and slightly colder-than-average meteorology, represented by specific years within the past three decades. The simulation with low GCM-like topography shows a negative surface mass balance, even with the relevant orbital parameter configuration, demonstrating the criticality of realistic topography. The downslope growth of the ice sheets is studied by looking at the sensitivity of the mass balance to initial snow cover prescribed beyond that of the present day. It is found that the snow-albedo feedback, via its effects on the mass balance, allows such larger snow cover to persist. Implications for GCM studies of glacial inception are discussed.

show abstract

Small ice cap instability in the presence of fluctuations

Cited by 23 publications

References 13 publications

Notes on a Catastrophe: A Feedback Analysis of Snowball Earth

Notes on a Catastrophe: A Feedback Analysis of Snowball Earth

Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations

Glacial Inception on Baffin Island: The Role of Insolation, Meteorology, and Topography

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About