Small-livestock farmers’ perceived effectiveness of predation control methods and the correlates of reported illegal poison use in the South African Karoo

Drouilly, Marine; Nattrass, Nicoli; O’Riain, M. Justin

doi:10.1007/s13280-023-01892-7

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…For instance, the individual in our dataset with the highest observed levels of inbreeding (F ROH = 0.29) and greatest total length of ROH > 10 Mb (Figures 2 and S9, S10) was sampled from Namaqualand. These continued high levels of inbreeding may be due in part to ongoing persecution of caracals by livestock farmers, who routinely kill caracals in large numbers as a form of predator control (Avenant et al, 2016;Drouilly et al, 2018Drouilly et al, , 2023Nattrass et al, 2020). The effect of this persecution could be to reduce male dispersal and drive greater population structure and inbreeding (Naude et al, 2020;Tensen et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of gene flow on population viability in an isolated urban caracal population

Kyriazis,

Serieys,

Bishop

et al. 2024

Molecular Ecology

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Wildlife populations are becoming increasingly fragmented by anthropogenic development. Small and isolated populations often face an elevated risk of extinction, in part due to inbreeding depression. Here, we examine the genomic consequences of urbanization in a caracal (Caracal caracal) population that has become isolated in the Cape Peninsula region of the City of Cape Town, South Africa, and is thought to number ~50 individuals. We document low levels of migration into the population over the past ~75 years, with an estimated rate of 1.3 effective migrants per generation. As a consequence of this isolation and small population size, levels of inbreeding are elevated in the contemporary Cape Peninsula population (mean FROH = 0.20). Inbreeding primarily manifests as long runs of homozygosity >10 Mb, consistent with the effects of isolation due to the rapid recent growth of Cape Town. To explore how reduced migration and elevated inbreeding may impact future population dynamics, we parameterized an eco‐evolutionary simulation model. We find that if migration rates do not change in the future, the population is expected to decline, though with a low projected risk of extinction. However, if migration rates decline or anthropogenic mortality rates increase, the potential risk of extinction is greatly elevated. To avert a population decline, we suggest that translocating migrants into the Cape Peninsula to initiate a genetic rescue may be warranted in the near future. Our analysis highlights the utility of genomic datasets coupled with computational simulation models for investigating the influence of gene flow on population viability.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of gene flow on population viability in an isolated urban caracal population

Kyriazis,

Serieys,

Bishop

et al. 2024

Molecular Ecology

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“…Depletion of leopard prey, such as gazelles and ibex, through hunting by humans outside PAs (Stein, 2020 ) poses an indirect threat (Wolf & Ripple, 2016 ) forcing leopards to increase their home ranges and causing population declines (Hayward et al., 2007 ). Leopards might respond by preying on livestock, leading to them being perceived as pests, hunted or poisoned (Al‐Johany, 2007 ; Drouilly et al., 2023 ; Parchizadeh & Belant, 2021 ; Soofi et al., 2022 ). A strong reduction in persecution alongside prey restoration can restore leopard populations by giving them the chance to recolonise patches.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land‐use change

Mitchell,

Bolam,

Bertola

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Predicting the effects of global environmental changes on species distribution is a top conservation priority, particularly for large carnivores, that contribute to regulating and maintaining ecosystems. As the most widespread and adaptable large felid, ranging across Africa and Asia, leopards are crucial to many ecosystems as both keystone and umbrella species, yet they are threatened across their ranges. We used intraspecific species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range suitability for leopards under future climate and land‐use change and identify conservation gaps and opportunities. We generated intraspecific SDMs for the three western leopard subspecies, the African, Panthera pardus pardus; Arabian, Panthera pardus nimr; and Persian, Panthera pardus tulliana, leopards, and overlapped predictions with protected areas (PAs) coverage. We show that leopard subspecies differ in their environmental associations and vulnerability to future changes. The African and Arabian leopards are predicted to lose ~25% and ~14% of their currently suitable range, respectively, while the Persian leopard is predicted to experience ~12% range gains. We found that most areas predicted to be suitable were not protected, with only 4%–16% of the subspecies' ranges falling inside PAs, and that these proportions will decrease in the future. The highly variable responses we found between leopard subspecies highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation when modelling vulnerability to climate and land‐use changes. The predicted decrease in proportion of suitable ranges falling inside PAs threatens global capacity to effectively conserve leopards because survival rates are substantially lower outside PAs due to persecution. Hence, it is important to work with local communities to address negative human‐wildlife interactions and to restore habitats to retain landscape connectivity where PA coverage is low. On the other hand, the predicted increase in range suitability across southern Europe presents opportunities for expansion outside of their contemporary range, capitalising on European rewilding schemes.

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“…2, S9-S10) was sampled from Namaqualand. These continued high levels of inbreeding may be due in part to ongoing persecution of caracals by livestock farmers, who routinely kill caracals in large numbers as a form of predator control (Avenant et al, 2016;Drouilly, Nattrass, & Riain, 2023;Drouilly, Tafani, Nattrass, & O'Riain, 2018;Nattrass, Conradie, Stephens, & Drouilly, 2020). The effect of this persecution, which most greatly impacts naïve younger cats, could be to concentrate caracal reproduction within a select group of adults who have learned to avoid hunting, leading to inbreeding.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of gene flow on population viability in an isolated urban caracal population

Kyriazis¹,

Serieys²,

Bishop³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Wildlife populations are becoming increasingly fragmented by anthropogenic development. Such small and isolated populations often face an elevated risk of extinction, in part due to inbreeding depression. Here, we examine the genomic consequences of urbanization in a caracal (Caracal caracal) population that has become isolated in the Cape Peninsula region of the city of Cape Town, South Africa and is thought to number ~50 individuals. We document low levels of migration into the population over the past ~75 years, with an estimated rate of 1.3 effective migrants per generation. As a consequence of this isolation and small population size, levels of inbreeding are elevated in the contemporary Cape Peninsula population (mean FROH>1Mb=0.20). Inbreeding primarily manifests as long runs of homozygosity >10Mb, consistent with the effects of isolation due to the rapid recent growth of Cape Town. To explore how reduced migration and elevated inbreeding may impact future population dynamics, we parameterized an eco-evolutionary simulation model. We find that if migration rates do not change in the future, the population is expected to decline only slightly, with a low projected risk of extinction. However, if migration rates decline or anthropogenic mortality rates increase, the potential risk of extinction is greatly elevated. To avert a population decline, we suggest that translocating migrants into the Cape Peninsula to initiate a genetic rescue may be warranted in the near future. Our analysis highlights the utility of genomic datasets coupled with computational simulation models for investigating the influence of gene flow on population viability.

show abstract

Small-livestock farmers’ perceived effectiveness of predation control methods and the correlates of reported illegal poison use in the South African Karoo

Cited by 4 publications

References 50 publications

The influence of gene flow on population viability in an isolated urban caracal population

The influence of gene flow on population viability in an isolated urban caracal population

Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land‐use change

The influence of gene flow on population viability in an isolated urban caracal population

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