Smoothing internal migration age profiles for comparative research

Bernard, Aude; Bell, Martin

doi:10.4054/demres.2015.32.33

Cited by 28 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Building on an inventory of migration data collections for 193 UN member states (Bell et al, ), an international team of researchers has assembled internal migration data covering 135 countries (Bell et al, ) and built a bespoke software platform, the IMAGE Studio, to compute multiple migration indicators using flexible geographies (Daras, ; Stillwell et al, ). Papers have explored methodological issues (Bell et al, ) and made cross‐national comparisons of overall internal migration intensities (Bell et al, , ) and migration age profiles (Bernard et al, , ; Bernard & Bell, ), globally as well as for selected regions and group of countries (Bell et al, ; Charles‐Edwards et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Internal Migration on Population Redistribution: an International Comparison

Rees

Bell

Kupiszewski

et al. 2016

Population Space and Place

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169

133

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We know that internal migration shapes human settlement patterns, but few attempts have been made to measure systematically the extent of population redistribution or make comparisons between countries. Robust comparisons are hampered by limited data access, different spacetime frameworks, and inadequate summary statistics. We use new analysis software (IMAGE Studio) to assess the effects of differences in the number and configuration of geographic zones and implement new measures to make comparisons across a large sample of countries, representing 80% of global population. We construct a new Index of Net Migration Impact to measure system-wide population redistribution and examine the relative contributions of migration intensity and effectiveness to crossnational variations. We compare spatial patterns using the slope of a regression between migration and population density across zones in each country to indicate the direction and pace of population concentration. We report correlations between measures of population redistribution and national development and propose a general theoretical model suggesting how internal migration redistributes population across settlement systems during the development process.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. Figure 1. Migration intensity, migration effectiveness and the aggregate net migration rate, as a function of the number of spatial units, selected countries that measure migration over a 5-year interval. 8 of 22 P. Rees et al.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Internal Migration on Population Redistribution: an International Comparison

Rees

Bell

Kupiszewski

et al. 2016

Population Space and Place

Self Cite

169

133

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Bernard et al (2014b) demonstrate that age and intensity at the peak are the optimum measures to capture cross-national differences in the age profile of migration, since these measures encompass both the breadth and symmetry of the peak among young adults. They also demonstrate (Bernard and Bell, 2015) that considerable care is needed in the choice of technique for data smoothing, since conventional model migration schedules may obscure subtle but important shifts over time in the age at which peak migration occurs. It follows that careful attention to the choice and computation of migration indicators is needed if shifts over time in the overall level of migration within a country, and their underlying causes, are to be properly understood.…”

Section: Selecting Robust Migration Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Studying internal migration in a cross-national context

Stillwell¹,

Bell²,

Shuttleworth³

2017

Internal Migration in the Developed World

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This book draws together empirical material on temporal trends in internal migration in selected countries across the developed world in order to explore whether the decline in migration intensity observed in the USA is evident in other developed societies. If the trends in the USA are observed across a suite of comparator nations, then it becomes plausible to contend that the structural economic and social changes that have taken place across the advanced nations of Europe, North America, Asia and Australasia have acted to reduce the propensity for internal migration. If, on the other hand, each country has experienced different, and possibly unique, temporal trends in migration rates in recent decades, the opportunity for grand theory formulation becomes less attractive. Alternatively, it may be that declining migration intensity is not confined to countries that are economically advanced, but that it is more widely spread across nations at earlier stages of development, as indeed seems to be the case with the evidence presented in Chapter 1, which suggests that there is a general period effect that is acting on all countries to a greater or lesser extent. The question which is the focus of the book clearly requires a cross-national comparative perspective. Given the weight of research that has focussed on internal migration in all its guises across several disciplines, it is tempting to assume that cross-national analysis is straightforward and analyses of migration behaviour in different countries abound. This, however, is not the case; our basic question is easy to pose but much harder to answer as countrieseven those with well-established population data systemsdiffer in the way that data are collected, in their definitions of migration, and in the spatio-temporal coverage of the data that are available. Consequently, previous cross-national studies of internal migration have tended to focus on comparisons between a relatively small number of selected countries rather than confront the challenges of data collection and harmonisation associated with a more comprehensive set of countries. This book falls primarily into the former category by asking individual experts to produce case studies for seven countries that answer the same general questions without being rigidly prescriptive about the means of doing this. In this sense, it differs from studies designed to compare migration using a standard set of migration indicators in two countries (e.g., Bell et al., 2002) or to compare one dimension of migration amongst a relatively small set of countries (e.g., Long et al., 1988). However, it does also

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“…Following existing approaches to forecasting cohort fertility (Chen, ; Goldstein, ), we extrapolate age‐specific migration rates into the future to allow cohorts to complete their migration career. To that end, we use Gaussian kernel regression to (a) smooth observed single‐year age‐specific migration rates (Bernard & Bell, ) and (b) impute migration rates to age 60 for cohorts born between 1955 and 1964, to age 52 for the 1965–1969 cohort, and to age 47 for the 1970–1974 cohort. These ages represent the maximum number of missing values that can be reliably imputed using kernel regression.…”

Section: What Is the Future Of Migration In China?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Migration in China: A cohort approach to understanding past and future trends

Bernard

Bell

Yun

2019

Population Space and Place

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Internal migration trends in China are well documented, but existing studies rely almost exclusively on period measures applied to cross-sectional data. To examine long-term trends, this paper adopts a cohort perspective and analyses migration levels and patterns and reasons for moving for cohorts born between 1935 and 1974. It applies a series of newly developed cohort measures to nationally representative migration histories retrospectively collected as part of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2014. It then develops cohort projections of migration from birth to age 60 for cohorts born between 1955 and 1994. The results show modest but rising levels of migration underpinned by a reduction in lifetime immobility and a rise in repeat movement, largely caused by an upswing in employmentrelated moves and return migration. Cohort analysis reveals more stable trends than period measures, while showing significant sex differentials that have persisted across successive cohorts.

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Smoothing internal migration age profiles for comparative research

Cited by 28 publications

References 34 publications

The Impact of Internal Migration on Population Redistribution: an International Comparison

The Impact of Internal Migration on Population Redistribution: an International Comparison

Studying internal migration in a cross-national context

Migration in China: A cohort approach to understanding past and future trends

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