Societal collapse: A literature review

Brozović, Danilo

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2022.103075

Cited by 32 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 215 publications

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“…Still, a robust infrastructure has been identified, as one of the factors that may make collapse less likely. [ 87 ]…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Still, a robust infrastructure has been identified, as one of the factors that may make collapse less likely. [87] There are certain threats to the power grid that can be anticipated, allowing for a period of forewarning before their actual impact. This timeframe offers us the opportunity to proactively fortify the grid and avert potential harm.…”

Section: Potential Countermeasuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

Moersdorf,

Rivers,

Denkenberger

et al. 2023

Global Challenges

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Modern civilization relies on a complex, globally interconnected industrial agriculture system to produce food. Its unprecedented yields hinge on external inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, rendering it vulnerable to disruptions in production and international trade. Such a disruption could be caused by large‐scale damage to the electrical grid. Solar storms, nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere, pandemics, or cyber‐attacks, could cause this severe damage to electrical infrastructure. To assess the impact of such a global catastrophic infrastructure loss on major food crops (corn, rice, soybean, wheat), we employ a generalized linear model. The predictions show a crop‐specific yield reduction between 15% and 37% in phase 1, the year after the catastrophe, assuming rationed use of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2, when all stocks are depleted, yields decrease by 35%–48%. Soybean is less affected in phase 1, while all crops experience strong declines in phase 2. Europe, North and South America, and parts of India, China, and Indonesia face major yield reductions, potentially up to 75%, while most African countries are less affected. These findings underscore the necessity for preparation by highlighting the vulnerability of the food system.

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“…Still, a robust infrastructure has been identified, as one of the factors that may make collapse less likely. [ 87 ]…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Potential Countermeasuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

Moersdorf,

Rivers,

Denkenberger

et al. 2023

Global Challenges

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show abstract

“…An additional layer is added through Wanner et al's overview of "Mid-to Late Holocene climate change" [8] who challenges assumptions that recent changes are solely attributable to human activities. The exploration extends into societal dimensions, with Danilo Brozović's review of "Societal collapse" [9] [11] explores how heightened awareness influences individuals' behaviours, shaping broader societal responses through activism. Hannes Zacher's exploration of "The dark side of environmental activism" injects a note of caution into our analysis [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reevaluating the Concern of Climate Change

Sharma,

Shenvi,

Sain

2024

IJECC

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Climate change is inevitably a defining characteristic of this century, which is inattentively attributed to anthropogenic factors far beyond its actualities. The paper challenges the prevailing narrative, proposing that global warming and climate shifts are inherent to Earth's history rather than primarily driven by human activities. It argues that climate change policies impose unwarranted economic strains on nations and impede technological advancement. Scientific assertions of human-induced climate change are scrutinized, with a focus on manipulated data and selective presentation to reinforce the narrative of impending global catastrophe. The exclusive emphasis on curbing greenhouse gas emissions is critiqued for fostering costly and ineffective measures, ultimately stalling economic growth and job creation. The study challenges the prevailing discourse on climate change and socio-economic challenges posed by climate migrations, advocating for a nuanced understanding that considers historical climatic shifts and questions the validity of current research methodologies, encouraging a more comprehensive examination of its multifaceted dynamics and potential societal impacts.

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“…The need for fundamental and radical transformation towards a sustainability paradigm is today fully accepted in the academic community (IPCC, 2022). Warnings of the imminent collapse of our complex society are no longer a fringe concern (Brozović, 2023; Sardar, 2021); rather, there is also an expectation of a forthcoming mass-extinction event on top of locked-in climate change (Bluwstein et al, 2021). Yet, there is an obvious lack of a comprehensive policy paradigm that is able to identify shared and achievable policy goals to bring about a sustainable well-being economy within planetary boundaries, and no ‘governance’ mechanism to support a policy process towards such a sustainability paradigm (Hirvilammi and Koch, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Doughnuts for strategies: A tool for an emerging sustainable welfare paradigm

Domazet,

Fischer,

Köves

2023

European Journal of Social Security

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The Degrowth Doughnut (a modification of the original Doughnut visualization of boundaries and foundations created by economist Kate Raworth) can be considered a visualization tool for assessing the current environmental and social capacity of a country to transform into an ecologically and socially sustainable modus operandi. Its sufficiently rich set of criteria, including cultural, socio-economic and biophysical indicators, gives us an overall picture of the problems to be dealt with and the strengths to build on in the immediate future. Its simple boundary-threshold structure presents limiting and aspirational targets in a single image. As such, it is also a tool that can aid eco-social policymaking to prioritize decisions and seek synergies between choices made. This research will present the Hungarian Degrowth Doughnut and use it as a case study when applied to the aims and expected impacts of Hungary’s operational National Clean Development Strategy. We will illustrate the degrowth-relevant priorities and assess the adequacy of the responses proposed by the Strategy, providing a critical analysis of the national policy options. Behind such climate and sustainability strategies are always a wealth of important value choices and moral considerations. Is there a safe and just operating space in the minds of the Hungarian policymakers? To what extent, if at all, are the fundamental principles of post-growth theories incorporated into a Hungarian sustainability strategy? We believe that a case study like this can also provide inspiration for further practical application of the Degrowth Doughnut elsewhere.

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Societal collapse: A literature review

Cited by 32 publications

References 215 publications

The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

Reevaluating the Concern of Climate Change

Doughnuts for strategies: A tool for an emerging sustainable welfare paradigm

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