Socio-cultural aspects of farmers’ perception of the risk of climate change and variability in Central Ethiopia

Etana, Dula; Wesenbeeck, C.F.A. van; Buning, Tjard de Cock

doi:10.1080/17565529.2020.1737796

Cited by 27 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…The joint empirical frequency distribution is defined from observed values of the explanatory variables. Then, conditional frequency distributions are derived from this joint distribution by partitioning the answers by, e.g., S respondents indexed s into a vector y of a dependent variable and a vector x of explanatory variables, taking the frequencies of y conditional on x [41][42][43].…”

Section: Analysis Of Convergence and Divergence Using Pollingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of Climate Change and Variability in Three Agro-Ecological Settings in Central Ethiopia: Contrasts of Meteorological Data and Farmers’ Perceptions

Etana

Snelder

Wesenbeeck

et al. 2020

Climate

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Using gridded daily temperature and rainfall data covering 30 years (1988–2017), this study investigates trends in rainfall, temperature, and extreme events in three agro-ecological settings in central Ethiopia. The Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to examine the trends and slope of changes in climate indices. The profile of farmers whose perception converges with or diverges from meteorological data was characterized using polling. The average annual temperature has increased by 0.4 and 0.3 °C per decade in the lowland and midland areas, respectively. Average annual rainfall has increased only in the midland areas by 178 mm per decade. Farmers’ perception of increasing temperature fairly aligns with meteorological data. However, there is a noticeable difference between farmers’ perception of rainfall and meteorological data. The perception of farmers with poor economic status, access to media, and higher social capital aligns with measured trends. Conversely, the perception of economically better-off and uneducated farmers diverges from meteorological data. Accurate perception is constrained by the failure of the traditional forecast methods to describe complex weather variabilities and lack of access to down-scaled weather information. The findings highlight the importance of availing specific and agro-ecologically relevant weather forecasts to overcome perceptual problems and to support effective adaptation.

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Section: Analysis Of Convergence and Divergence Using Pollingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of Climate Change and Variability in Three Agro-Ecological Settings in Central Ethiopia: Contrasts of Meteorological Data and Farmers’ Perceptions

Etana

Snelder

Wesenbeeck

et al. 2020

Climate

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“…Some studies on Ethiopia have indicated that the RCMs show bias at higher elevations, but work well for low-elevation regions (Workua et al, 2018;Dibaba et al, 2019;van Vooren et al, 2019). Most of the previous studies on Ethiopia have concentrated on climate-change vulnerability and mitigation measures (Eshetu et al, 2020;Etana et al, 2020). Some studies that have focused on the impact of climate change using single RCMs should perhaps re-assess these based on multiple model ensemble.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating rainfall and air temperature over southwest Ethiopia

Demissie

Sime

2021

Heliyon

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This study analyzed the performance of four (REgional MOdel (REMO2009), High-Resolution Hamburg Climate Model 5 (HIRAM5), Climate Limited-Area Modeling Community (CCLM4-8) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA4)) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa program. The simulation period of 1985-2005 was evaluated considering how each RCM simulated the observed rainfall and air temperature over southwest Ethiopia. It was found that all the RCMs simulated the seasonal rainfall, but not the peak rainfall, with all models including their ensemble underestimating the peak rainfall. However, the ensemble was better than the individual RCMs in simulating both rainfall and air temperature. All models were slightly biased around a warm climate zone in simulating maximum air temperature when compared to the simulation of air minimum temperature. Of the four RCMs, REMO2009 performed well in simulating the maximum and minimum air temperatures. The interseasonal variation in rainfall was greater than the seasonal variation in air temperature. In terms of cumulative distribution, the HIRAM5 captured more extreme rainfall events and overestimated the return period. Overall, the differences in performance among the RCMs provided strong evidence for the use of regional-scale data at the local scale in climate impact assessments being controversial. In relation to the spatial pattern of the rainfall, most of the models simulated the observed minimum rainfall in the north and northeast, medium rainfall in the central region, and maximum rainfall in the south and southwest of the study area. The overall results indicate that choosing a reliable RCM is fundamentally necessary to delivering a strong basis for any climate-change impact study.

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“…Second, while the debate on food security continues, ongoing discussions concern the implications of frequent temperature variations, rainfall variability, and increased climatic events across African countries (Etana et al, 2021;Hulme et al, 2001;Nicholson et al, 2000;Nicholson, 2001;Owusu et al, 2021). Although Africa is considered a minor player in total global greenhouse gas emissions, generating less than 4% of the world's total (Oliver & Peters, 2020), the continent is susceptible to the adverse consequences of climate change variability (Boko et al, 2007;Lobell et al, 2011;Nakhooda et al, 2011;Sy, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Easterling et al (2007), a rise in temperature by 3 °C or more will cause food prices to increase by 40%. A large proportion of the African population relies on rain-fed farming for their livelihood (Adhikari et al, 2015;Cooper et al, 2008;Muchuru & Nhamo, 2019), so extreme climate variability poses a significant threat to food production (Boko et al, 2007;Etana et al, 2021;Lobell et al, 2011;Schlenker & Lobell, 2010). Climate change and variability also raise food production costs, translating to high consumer prices (Berrera & Hertel, 2021;Dadzie et al, 2021;FAO, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change: a friend or foe to food security in Africa?

Pickson

Boateng

2021

Environ Dev Sustain

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Extreme climate change is posing an increasing threat to human welfare across countries. Specifically, the devastating floods coupled with the looming spectre of drought are argued to explain cross-country differences in food security. While the debate continues and uncertainties about the precise influence of climate change on food security linger, the question of whether climate change plays a pivotal role in increased hunger and food insecurity across countries remains unanswered. This study presented new evidence of the role of climate change in Africa's food security. We utilised the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator to analyse climate change trends. We also employed the pooled mean group technique and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test to investigate the effect of climate change on food security in 15 African countries between 1970 and 2016. Our empirical findings revealed three things. First, rainfall plays a decisive role in Africa's food security when examined broadly. However, the significance of the effect of rainfall varied substantially across the 15 countries. Second, we find no robust impact of temperature on food security in the long run. However, the short-run results showed that extreme temperatures impede food security, with varying magnitudes across countries. Third, except for rainfall, a bidirectional causality exists between food security and temperature in Africa. Given the risks associated with rain-fed agriculture, we argue that African countries need to limit their dependence on rain-fed agriculture to boost food production.

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Socio-cultural aspects of farmers’ perception of the risk of climate change and variability in Central Ethiopia

Abstract: Socio-cultural aspects of farmers' perception of the risk of climate change and variability in Central Ethiopia Etana, Dula; van Wesenbeeck, Cornelia F.A.; de Cock Buning, Tjard

Cited by 27 publications

References 57 publications

Trends of Climate Change and Variability in Three Agro-Ecological Settings in Central Ethiopia: Contrasts of Meteorological Data and Farmers’ Perceptions

Trends of Climate Change and Variability in Three Agro-Ecological Settings in Central Ethiopia: Contrasts of Meteorological Data and Farmers’ Perceptions

Assessment of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating rainfall and air temperature over southwest Ethiopia

Climate change: a friend or foe to food security in Africa?

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