Socio-ecological systems modelling of coastal urban area under a changing climate – Case study for Ubatuba, Brazil

Oliveira, Bruno Meirelles de; Boumans, Roelof; Fath, Brian D.; Harari, Joseph

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.109953

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…This study complements two previous works, one in which the ecosystem services model was created, calibrated, and discussed (Oliveira et al, 2022a); and a second where the prototype of the resilience index (Oliveira et al, 2022b) was built and implemented using Homo economicus as the sole worldview (Figure 1). As all the model characteristics and limits were previously described and discussed in these papers, we provide just a small description of the approach to help the reader with context.…”

Section: The Simulation Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 64%

“…The model used in this article builds on these authors' ideas and applies their knowledge to the simulation of coastal resilience of a specific SES. As the ecosystem services part is data-intensive (Oliveira et al, 2022a), it is understood as the hard part of the model. Furthermore, as the social submodel brings the worldviews into the foundational concept, its experimental numerical simulation represents the soft part of the model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How social-ecological systems resilience unfolds from distinct worldviews

Oliveira,

Boumans,

Fath

et al. 2024

Front. Sustain. Resour. Manag.

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Resilience is a critically important factor to consider for sustainably managing natural resources and social-ecological systems (SESs). Each social system will, collectively, have its own goals for how resources are perceived and the principles that underpin their resilience, and, multiple actors, individually, will approach the question with different perspectives. Here, we represent these plural perspectives in terms of worldviews, using the typologies from cultural theory. We combined the underpinning resilience principles from a previously built SES model to assess the extent to which these worldviews influence the results. Resilience was measured using a prototype Dynamic Resilience Index (DRI) validated in a previous publication. The results show the resilience of our SESs will behave in three different ways depending on each worldview used. Free markets (individualists) start the simulation period with a higher resilience. Strong governance (hierarchy) will take a higher position around 2025 and maintain the best value to the end of the simulation in 2100. The precautionary principle (egalitarians) starts with the lowest values for the DRI but ends closer to the strong governance, and it is the only worldview that increased its resilience throughout the simulation. Each worldview couples better to a particular management approach, and the SES behavior responds accordingly. The relevance for the governance of the SES is great as each worldview brings flawed contributions to resilience and wellbeing. Our research also shows that a possible negotiated solution between these worldviews would locate resilience inside the “solution space,” which is graphically determined and discussed. Adopting each worldview is then discussed in terms of contributions and problems they imply to the system's resilience.

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Section: The Simulation Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 64%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How social-ecological systems resilience unfolds from distinct worldviews

Oliveira,

Boumans,

Fath

et al. 2024

Front. Sustain. Resour. Manag.

Self Cite

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“…Reductionist-Qualitative Goodland and Daly (1996) The Anthropocene Review 11( 1) is an abundance of models within the literature from general models to specific systemic models. Some examples of Earth System models include: (i) the Earth3 model (Goluke et al, 2018;Randers et al, 2018Randers et al, , 2019, which evaluates potential future scenario-based outcomes of the implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals in respect to the Planetary Boundaries framework (Rockström et al, 2009;United Nations, 2015); (ii) The World3 model (Herrington, 2021;Meadows et al, 1972Meadows et al, , 1992Meadows et al, , 2004Pasqualino et al, 2015), which is the basis for the Limits to Growth model; (iii) Integrated modelling of the dynamics of ecosystem services, for example, Multiscale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) (Boumans and Costanza, 2007;Boumans et al, 2015;Oliveira et al, 2022), and the Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere (GUMBO) model (Boumans et al, 2002); (iv) the Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY) model (Motesharrei et al, 2014); and (v) the Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System (AIMES) approach (Schimel et al, 2015).…”

Section: Categorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Determining the fundamental dynamics of global sustainability in the Anthropocene from a vulnerability perspective

Phillips

2023

The Anthropocene Review

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This paper conducts a detailed quantitative study of the indicated long-term levels, nature and dynamics of sustainability at the global spatial scale over time, within the context of the vulnerability of the environment-human relationship and system. In this study, the Sustainability Dynamics Framework is applied to the results of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative index for the period 1995–2018. The study indicates that the obtained S-values at the global spatial scale throughout the specified period were consistent with very weak unsustainability occurring. Through statistical analysis, the study indicates that the triumvirate of influencing factors (Population, GDP, Greenhouse Gases) have a significant influence and impact individually and cumulatively upon obtained S-values. The study then determines the net change in obtained E, HNI and S-values, and consequently evaluates the dynamics of the rate of change of the Earth System ( dE/dt), as defined in the Anthropocene Equation theory. To support this, Fourier analysis of net change of S-values is applied for the first time within the SDF application methodology, using eight time periods of 16 years’ duration over the period 1996–2018. The analysis indicates continuous overlapping cycles of 7 years’ duration, consisting of a lag time of 3 years leading to an impact period of 4 years. The Fourier analysis potentially indicates clearly for the first-time humanity’s footprint signal upon the environment-human relationship and system in the Anthropocene. The study concludes that humanity’s actions and inactions have resulted in the indicated unsustainability and vulnerability of the environment-human relationship and system. As a consequence, there is a potential realistic risk of systemic collapse unless fundamental changes occur in respect to the global environment-human relationship.

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“…RHSS vulnerability refers to the state in which the environment related to housing, living and basic production activities of the inhabitants in a rural area is vulnerable to negative impacts or damages due to exposure to disturbances from natural and human conditions. In the 1980s, the term "vulnerability" was introduced into the field of geosciences by Timmerman [33], and has been extended to various areas of study of human-environment relationships, such as climate impacts and socio-ecological systems [34][35][36][37], livelihood and poverty [38], social transformation [39,40] and health and welfare [41][42][43][44]. It has gradually become a new research perspective and an important analytical tool for global environmental change and sustainability science.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contributions and Resistances to Vulnerability of Rural Human Settlements System in Agricultural Areas of Chinese Loess Plateau since 1980

et al. 2023

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The vulnerability evolution of human settlements system on the micro-scale is a direct indicator of the local impact of global environmental change. Traditional agricultural areas are most vulnerable to climate and market changes. Due to the lack of historical statistics, micro-scale quantitative studies on the historical evolution of vulnerability are extremely scarce. From the perspective of the socio-ecological system, this study conducted field investigations along with quantitative assessment and an ethnographic approach to explore the vulnerability change of rural human settlements system since 1980 in Jia County, an agro-pastoral interlocking area. The study found that the vulnerability of natural, dwelling and social systems has continued to decrease, while human system vulnerability increased. At present, the RHSS is characterized by the poor quality of the river, a depressed rural population and a large gap between the rich and poor as weaknesses, and is characterized by sandstorm disaster reduction, more robust rural roads, adequate water for domestic use and high social security as strengths. Results revealed that ecological projects, increased precipitation, market changes, urbanization siphoning and farmer behaviors are key drivers to the vulnerability change since 1980. The study findings can be directly applied to rural revitalization strategies, vulnerability mitigation and adaptive management practices in China. In addition, the vulnerability evolution under multiple perturbations can provide guidance for settlement planning and construction in traditional agricultural areas among developing countries under global changes.

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Socio-ecological systems modelling of coastal urban area under a changing climate – Case study for Ubatuba, Brazil

Cited by 17 publications

References 32 publications

How social-ecological systems resilience unfolds from distinct worldviews

How social-ecological systems resilience unfolds from distinct worldviews

Determining the fundamental dynamics of global sustainability in the Anthropocene from a vulnerability perspective

Contributions and Resistances to Vulnerability of Rural Human Settlements System in Agricultural Areas of Chinese Loess Plateau since 1980

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