Socio-Economic Determinants of Human Negligence in Wildfire Incidence: A Case Study from Pakistan’s Peri-Urban and Rural Areas

Abstract

This study aims to examine the socio-economic determinants of human negligence in wildfire occurrences across Pakistan’s peri-urban and rural regions. Increasingly frequent and severe wildfires, driven by climate change, socio-economic conditions, and human negligence, have become a pressing issue. Rising global temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have created drier conditions, while unsafe human activities—such as improper disposal of flammable materials and unsafe agricultural burning—further escalate wildfire risks. These issues are particularly pronounced in Pakistan, where high poverty levels, limited resources, and low education contribute to dangerous behaviors. Weak governance and poor policy enforcement further exacerbate the problem. Data were collected using a cross-sectional survey from 500 participants across five regions. Multiple regression analysis revealed that higher poverty levels significantly increased negligence, whereas higher education and improved access to resources reduced it. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) highlighted the critical roles of local governance, policy enforcement, and community engagement in mitigating wildfires. Correlation analysis indicated an inverse relationship between wildfire risk awareness and negligent behavior. Chi-square tests demonstrated a strong connection between wildfires and migration patterns, underscoring the socio-economic instability caused by these events. Finally, linear regression showed that wildfires significantly impact regional climate indicators, emphasizing the need for integrated management strategies. This study offers valuable insights into the socio-economic factors driving wildfires in Pakistan and provides guidance for developing targeted mitigation strategies.