Socio-economic disparities and predictors of fertility among adolescents aged 15 to 19 in Zambia: Evidence from the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (2018)

Abstract

Globally, 12 million girls aged 15–19 give birth each year, and Africa hosts 19% of youth aged 15–24. In Zambia, 29% of adolescents experience childbirth, with variations by age. Projections suggest a continued rise in these trends by 2030. Zambia came up with Adolescent Health Strategic Plan 2011–2015 among the specific policies being advocated for was Adolescent-Friendly Health Services (ADFHS) in order to mitigate among others adolescent fertility. The study aims to investigate socio-economic disparities and predictors of fertility in Zambian adolescents aged 15 to 19. The study used a cross-sectional study design utilized the 2018 Zambia Demographic Health Survey (ZDHS). The variable of interest in this study is “total number of children ever born” among adolescents aged 15 to 19 years. The explanatory variables that were used in the study were demographic, socio-economic, behavioral and community level factors. The Rao–Scott Chi-square test was used to test for association between categorical variables. Determinants of adolescent fertility were identified through a multilevel ordinal logistic regression conducted at a significance level of 5%. Analysis in the study was carried out using Stata version 14.2. A total of 3,000 adolescents were involved in the study, revealing that 75.88% had not given birth, 21.14% had one child, and 2.98% had at least two children. The findings revealed that education played a protective role, with adjusted odds ratios (AOR) of 0.47 (95% CI, 0.23–0.97), 0.21 (95% CI, 0.10–0.47), and 0.03 (95% CI, 0.00–0.54) for primary, secondary, and tertiary education, respectively. On the other hand, certain factors were associated with an elevated risk of fertility. These included the age of adolescents, educational attainment, marital status, wealth index, contraceptive use, exposure to family planning (FP) messages, being educated about FP at health facilities, and age at first sexual encounter. Among contextual factors, only community age at first birth was identified as a predictor of fertility, AOR, 1.59 (95% CI, 1.01–2.52). The study highlights sociodemographic disparities in adolescent fertility, emphasizing the need for targeted sexual reproductive health policies. Education protects against having more than one child, while marital status significantly influences fertility, particularly for married adolescents. The research provides valuable insights into the complex factors shaping adolescent fertility in Zambia, offering guidance for interventions and policies to support this vulnerable demographic.