Socioeconomic Impact of Climate Change in Rural Areas of Greece Using a Multicriteria Decision-Making Model

Abstract

Agriculture is the main and, in some cases, the only, source of income and employment in rural areas. The change in the conditions under which agriculture is practiced has various effects on the agricultural economy but also on the social structure of rural areas. Climate change has multiple effects on agricultural production, necessitating the reorganization of agricultural production in some cases. These effects of climate change will also impact the economic and social aspects of farms in rural areas. This paper attempts to identify these effects by measuring the socioeconomic impacts of climate change in the region of Central Macedonia in Greece. For this reason, a multicriteria model was developed to simulate these impacts by estimating a set of seven social and economic indicators. The model was implemented to the average farm which was estimated from the main cultivations of the region. A scenario analysis was also used in combination with the multicriteria model. The multicriteria model suggests modifications are needed in the average farm crop plan of the region as a result of the climate change impact. The scenarios results show that climate change will negatively affect all the social and economic indicators and will continue to affect them over the years. These results can be used by policymakers to understand the economic and social impacts of climate change in the region to plan their future policies.

A Multicriteria Decision Analysis Model for Optimal Land Uses: Guiding Farmers under the New European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (2023–2027)

“…Regarding the three farmer groups (Chalastra, Lagyna, and Chrisoupoli), which primarily use irrigation techniques, it has been shown that they should reduce the water use by decreasing the land dedicated to crops with high water requirements such as rice, corn, vetch, and clover. This finding is similar to that of other studies [17,18,56]. Contrary to the expectations, other irrigated crops with high water requirements, such as cotton, alfalfa hay, corn (in case of the third farmers' group), and corn silage, may be increasing.…”

“…Contrary to the expectations, other irrigated crops with high water requirements, such as cotton, alfalfa hay, corn (in case of the third farmers' group), and corn silage, may be increasing. The same finding does not apply to many studies [17,18,54,56], but it could be explained by the reduction in the cultivated land uses [17,18,56] and the fact that these specific crops hold substantial economic value for the areas (Northern Greece) where the farmer groups are located [71]. Most of the non-irrigated land appear to be increasing, which points to the fact that the desire to reduce water use due to climate change implies lower water consumption for crops.…”

“…Multi-criteria mathematical programming has been applied over time to find constructive land use changes and discover optimal farm plans based on the aforementioned criteria. This is something that is proved by reviewing a wide range of the relative literature [17,18,49,56]. Sumpsi et al (1993Sumpsi et al ( , 1997 [57,58] and Amador et al (1998) [59] developed methodologies for simulating agricultural systems using multi-criteria techniques.…”

“…Four objectives were identified as part of the farmers' decision-making process [17,56,69]. These are:…”

Climate Change—Between “Myth and Truth” in Romanian Farmers’ Perception

“…Many researchers in the field see climate change as the biggest threat, jeopardizing food security as the demand for food grows [48][49][50][51]. To avoid this problem, the use of fertilizers and pesticides has been called for, but this method involves the use of finite and unsustainable resources [52][53][54].…”