Socioeconomic spillovers of the 2016–2017 Italian earthquakes: a bi-regional inoperability model

Ahmed, Irfan; Socci, Claudio; Pretaroli, Rosita; Severini, Francesca; Deriu, Stefano

doi:10.1007/s10668-021-01446-5

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Commercial real estate will exhibit more upward trend provided with the earliest resumption of business activities (Bagchi, 2020). The current findings are different from the findings of Ahmed et al (2021) who used the bi-regional inoperability model to investigate the socioeconomic impacts of the 2016–2017 Italian earthquakes. They identified the highly impacted sectors as “Agriculture, food and beverage,” “Textiles and wearing apparel” and “Wholesale and retail trade.” As mentioned earlier, the repercussions of every event may be different, and inoperability in each kind of event should be investigated regardless of previous event different dynamics.…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 99%

“…A further contribution has been proposed through the use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models (McKibbin and Fernando, 2020), which reproduce the general economic equilibrium with stochastic methodology, but generally this type of model does not have a high degree of disaggregation, both in terms of commodities and industries. In this perspective, the Leontief input-output (I-O) model presents an accounting scheme and offers disaggregation of industries and commodities to enact direct and indirect linkages among them (Ahmed et al, 2018(Ahmed et al, , 2021. Several studies have exploited the I-O model and its extensions for disaster impact analysis.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Socioeconomic spillovers of COVID-19: case of Saudi Arabia

Ahmed

Medabesh

Mehrez

et al. 2021

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PurposeWith the global outbreak of COVID-19 that has made the economic activities standstill, countries have taken immediate measures to safeguard not only the human lives but also the economies. This study investigates empirically the lockdown impact of current pandemic on the Saudi economy.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs inoperability input–output model (IIOM) on the input–output table (IOT) of Saudi Arabia for the analysis.FindingsFindings show that with the closure of few sectors for the period of two months, the GDP declined to 6.49%. Findings also show a negative impact on consumption, investments and exports.Research limitations/implicationsOne limitation of current study is that it uses IOTs which lack primary and secondary income distribution that is vital for presenting complete interindustry connections in the analysis. The interindustry structures relate to the consumption structures which ultimately lead to the income distribution and affect the consumption behaviors of economic agents. Hence, the complete income circular flow is not incorporated in IIOM using IOT. The findings of current study would be well grounded if it endogenized the primary and secondary income distribution.Practical implicationsThe practical implication of this study is the use of IIOM for anticipating the potential loss against the backdrop of catastrophes and pandemics. The IIOM has the capability to predict the economic effects of disruptive events and hence the policy-makers can better predict and devise prudent policies to avoid the likely threats to the economy.Originality/valueThe current situation is unprecedented, and it is challenging for governments to forecast the economic repercussions. Several economic sectors have been inoperative due to lockdown implemented by the governments. This study empirically estimated the inoperability produced by the current pandemic. The findings are consistent with other estimated statistics, thereby proving the efficacy of IIOM to anticipate the economic repercussions of natural hazards.

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Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socioeconomic spillovers of COVID-19: case of Saudi Arabia

Ahmed

Medabesh

Mehrez

et al. 2021

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“…Looking at the graph, about 26% of the decrease in production is due to the drop in the construction and real estate activities sector, and the 18% is due to the drop in the retail trade and hotels and catering services, indicating that 44% of the drop in production is due to these four sectors. These findings are different from those of Ahmed et al (2021a, b), which use a biregional extended inoperability model in the same economy. They investigated the socioeconomic spillovers of the 2016–2017 earthquakes in Italy.…”

Section: Findings/economic Impact Of Covid-19contrasting

confidence: 99%

“…A significant contraction concentrates on construction and real estate activities, followed by retail trade and hotel and catering services. The greater impact in the construction and real estate sectors is due to the fact that these sectors received noteworthy investment in recent years (Ahmed et al , 2021a, b). Moreover, as the key sectors, growth in these sectors stimulates the production of other sectors in Italy (Ciaschini and Socci, 2007).…”

Section: Findings/economic Impact Of Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, notwithstanding that the IO models have already been used for impact analysis, they are less likely to quantify and predict economic losses and inoperability suffered by individual sectors in response to a sector or a set of sectors affected by a disaster (Ahmed et al , 2021a, b). Hence, the inoperability approach introduced by Haimes and Jiang (2001) was used to assess inoperability caused by disruptive events, such as earthquakes, floods, terrorism and pandemics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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COVID-19 and a trade-off between health and economics: an extended inoperability model for Italy

Socci

Ahmed

Alfify

et al. 2021

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PurposeThe recent COVID-19 has obliged governments to enact large-scale policies to contain it. A topic of economic debate is the quantification of the impact that these policies can create in the economy, with the aim of activating regulatory mechanisms to minimize this impact. In this vein, this study aims to propose a quantification of the effects of the Italian government policy that blocks nonessential production activities.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a multisectoral extended inoperability model on the social accounting matrix of Italy. The analysis identifies the pandemic’s impact on outputs, endogenous demands, value-added and disposable incomes of institutional sectors.FindingsThe construction and real estate sectors revealed a significant contraction followed by the retail trade and hotel and catering services sectors. The output contraction further impacts the value-added generation, disposable income and final demand components.Originality/valueThe current pandemic is alleged to have a greater impact than the epidemics of the past century, considering the present dimension of the world economy and the increasing interconnections between industries and institutions. In this scenario, it is challenging to safeguard not only human health and life but also the economy. Hence, there is a need to establish a trade-off between health and economics; and in this regard, the current study empirically quantifies the impact of health measures on the economy. The findings of this study help identify the sectors that are more prone to disaster effects and also present the structure of income circular flow in the Italian economy.

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