Solar forcing of Caribbean drought events during the last millennium

Burn, Michael J.; Palmer, Suzanne E.

doi:10.1002/jqs.2660

Cited by 47 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…3E). Reduced seventeenth-century CTC activity has also been recorded in an array of Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico lowerresolution TC proxies (10)(11)(12)(23)(24)(25) and is concurrent with increased ocean stratification-possibly linked to reduced TCinduced mixing-near Great Bahama Bank (26) and increased aridity in various proxy records from the circum-Caribbean region (27,28).…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 95%

Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

Trouet

Harley

Domínguez‐Delmás

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Assessing the impact of future climate change on North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of crucial societal importance, but the limited quantity and quality of observational records interferes with the skill of future TC projections. In particular, North Atlantic TC response to radiative forcing is poorly understood and creates the dominant source of uncertainty for twenty-first-century projections. Here, we study TC variability in the Caribbean during the Maunder Minimum (MM; 1645-1715 CE), a period defined by the most severe reduction in solar irradiance in documented history (1610-present). For this purpose, we combine a documentary time series of Spanish shipwrecks in the Caribbean (1495-1825 CE) with a tree-growth suppression chronology from the Florida Keys (1707. We find a 75% reduction in decadal-scale Caribbean TC activity during the MM, which suggests modulation of the influence of reduced solar irradiance by the cumulative effect of cool North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, El Niño-like conditions, and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our results emphasize the need to enhance our understanding of the response of these oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns to radiative forcing and climate change to improve the skill of future TC projections.L andfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) bring devastation to natural and human landscapes with floods, winds, and storm surges. In recent decades, TC-related human mortality and economic losses have risen in step with increasing populations in high-risk coastal communities (1). TC damage is expected to further increase in the near future with rising exposure and projected anthropogenic climate change (2). This is particularly the case for the North Atlantic Basin, which is one of the most TC-active basins globally. The development of successful adaptation and mitigation strategies relies on skillful projections of North Atlantic TC activity, as well as an improved understanding of the drivers of its variability.Modeling studies of twenty-first-century global TC activity generally converge in their projections of increased TC intensity and decreased frequency, but the magnitude range of projected North Atlantic TC variability is wide (3). Uncertainties in twentyfirst-century North Atlantic TC projections are largely driven by the chaotic nature of the climate system and by our limited understanding of TC response to radiative forcing, including anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols, as well as natural variability in volcanic and solar activity (4). Response uncertainty is the dominant source of uncertainty toward the end of the twenty-first century (4), with different model runs resulting in TC responses of opposing sign to projected radiative forcing (3). Our understanding of TC response to radiative forcing-and thus the skill of future TC projections-is restricted by limitations in the time-series length and quality of observational records (5) that hinder trend detection and attribution (3).To attribute significant TC cha...

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Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 95%

Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

Trouet

Harley

Domínguez‐Delmás

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…3d) suggests that gypsum is exposed to the surface only locally. Therefore, the high gypsum, Sr, and TS concentrations in Province IV, partly extending further towards the lake centre (Province VI), most likely originate not only from surficial gypsum and carbonate supply but also from infiltrating groundwater, which is enriched with dissolved Ca and SO 4 ions (Burn and Palmer, 2014). This suggestion is supported by low C/S values in the centre of the lake (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Modern sedimentation processes in Laguna de Medina, southern Spain, derived from lake surface sediment and catchment soil samples

et al. 2016

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“…Peaks in the Fe/Ti ratio identify anoxic environments (Aufgebauer et al, 2012), while peaks in Mn/Fe indicate oxic conditions (Burn and Palmer, 2014;Unkel et al, 2008). In Zone 1 the Fe/Ti values remained relatively high, suggesting an anoxic environment.…”

Section: Zone 1 (190-110cm)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kcps -1 can be used to normalize data and is a combined frequency of the moisture content, surface roughness, surface defects and grain size (Weltje and Tjallingii, 2008). Throughout this thesis the sum of the Mo incoherent and Mo coherent scattering is used to normalise data, as it accounts for changes in the sediment density and moisture content (Burn and Palmer, 2014;Kylander et al, 2011). …”

Section: µXrf Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Peaks in inorganic content are comparable to increases in the sand, particularly between 40-20cm. The LOI and particle size results from Ker-01a were compared to the Mo inc/Mo coh ratio from µXRF analysis of Ker-01b, reflecting the grain size, organic content and moisture content (Burn and Palmer, 2014;Kylander et al, 2011).…”

Section: Stratigraphy and Radiocarbon Datingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Palaeoecology of the South Wellesley Archipelago. A history of human occupation and environmental change

Mackenzie¹

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A wealth of palaeoecological studies from the Australasian region identify periods of significant environmental change during the Holocene. However, relatively few studies have focused on the coastal lowlands of tropical northern Australia, limiting our ability to accurately reconstruct this vast bioregion's history. This study addresses the gap in spatially distributed paleoenvironmental research in northern Australia by producing the first reconstructions from the South Wellesley This research examined seven sediment profiles using micro X-ray fluorescence geochemical data and particle size analysis.

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Solar forcing of Caribbean drought events during the last millennium

Cited by 47 publications

References 54 publications

Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

Modern sedimentation processes in Laguna de Medina, southern Spain, derived from lake surface sediment and catchment soil samples

Palaeoecology of the South Wellesley Archipelago. A history of human occupation and environmental change

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