Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability

Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour‐Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

doi:10.1038/ncomms9268

Cited by 136 publications

(173 citation statements)

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“…In order to obtain data for the whole period, monthly sunspot numbers are obtained from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (http://sidc.oma.be/). Analysis is also carried out using solar indices leading by one to 5 years, as recent evidence suggests that there is a lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability Gray et al 2013;Thiéblemont et al 2015;Andrews et al 2015).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

Jones

Hanna

et al. 2016

Clim Dyn

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

Jones

Hanna

et al. 2016

Clim Dyn

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“…Proposed transfer mechanisms include changes in TSI and SSI, as well as in solar-driven energetic particles (e.g., . In addition, recent work suggests a lagged response in the North Atlantic and European sector due to atmosphere-ocean coupling (e.g., Gray et al, 2013;Scaife et al, 2013), as well as a synchronization of decadal variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) by the solar cycle (Thieblemont et al, 2015). Lagged responses have been also attributed to particle effects , and hence the observed solar surface signal could be a combination of topdown solar UV and particle mechanisms as well as bottomup atmosphere-ocean mechanisms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent modeling efforts have made progress in defining the prerequisites to simulate solar influence on regional climate more realistically (e.g., Gray et al, 2013;Scaife et al, 2013;Thieblemont et al, 2015), but the lessons learned from CMIP5 show that a more process-based analysis of climate models within CMIP6 is required to better understand the differences in model responses to solar forcing (e.g., Mitchell et al, 2015b;Misios et al, 2016;Hood et al, 2015). In particular, the role of solar-induced ozone changes and the need for a suitable resolution of climate model radiation schemes to capture SSI variations is becoming increasingly evident, and will be touched upon in this paper.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, it is becoming increasingly evident that its solar-cycle variability in the UV part of the spectrum may be too low compared to updated and more recent SSI reconstructions by models such as NRLSSI2 (Coddington et al, 2016) and SATIRE (Yeo et al, 2014). Recent studies have emphasized the sensitivity to UV forcing changes due to top-down effects (Ermolli et al, 2013;Langematz et al, 2013;Thieblemont et al, 2015;Maycock et al, 2015;Ball et al, 2016), thereby stressing the need for a state-of-the-art representation of the SSI, and in particular the UV band, in the CMIP6 solar forcing recommendation. For that reason, we will focus on the SSI uncertainty and possible impacts of the higher SSI variability in CMIP6 with respect to the CMIP5 solar forcing recommendation (http://solarisheppa.geomar.de/cmip5).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More recently, it has become better established that there is a solar response in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and NAO from the top-down mechanism (Shindell et al, 2001;Kodera, 2002;Matthes et al, 2006;Woollings et al, 2010;Lockwood et al, 2010;Ineson et al, 2011;Langematz et al, 2013;Maycock et al, 2015;Thieblemont et al, 2015). Earlier models often employed a lower vertical domain, missing key physical processes by which solar signals in the stratosphere couple to surface winter climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

et al. 2017

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Abstract. This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical ( -2014, and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunderminimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical onePublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m −2 . The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m −2 . In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using timeslice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day −1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day −1 at the stratopause), temperatures (∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models wi...

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Decadal variability of European sea level extremes in relation to the solar activity

Martínez‐Asensio

Tsimplis

Calafat

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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This study investigates the relationship between decadal changes in solar activity and sea level extremes along the European coasts and derived from tide gauge data. Autumn sea level extremes vary with the 11 year solar cycle at Venice as suggested by previous studies, but a similar link is also found at Trieste. In addition, a solar signal in winter sea level extremes is also found at Venice, Trieste, Marseille, Ceuta, Brest, and Newlyn. The influence of the solar cycle is also evident in the sea level extremes derived from a barotropic model with spatial patterns that are consistent with the correlations obtained at the tide gauges. This agreement indicates that the link to the solar cycle is through modulation of the atmospheric forcing. The only atmospheric regional pattern that showed variability at the 11 year period was the East Atlantic pattern.

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Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability

Cited by 136 publications

References 49 publications

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

Decadal variability of European sea level extremes in relation to the solar activity

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