Solar Irradiance Forecasting, Benchmarking of Different Techniques and Applications of Energy Meteorology

Abstract

The forecasts of solar irradiance, wind speed, ambient temperatures and other meteorological parameters play an important role in the field of energy meteorology. This paper is addressed to the forecast of solar irradiance, the comparison of different forecast methods and the use of this irradiance prediction in applications. Solar irradiance forecast can be accomplished with completely different methods, ranging from Fuzzy-Logic-models to synoptic cloud cover forecasts of meteorologists. In the first part of the paper the basic principles of different methods and a comparison of achievable results will be presented. Forecast of meteorological conditions should not practice as an end in itself, but can be used for energy-relevant applications. In this paper the use of solar irradiance and weather forecasts to control the heating and cooling of an office building as well as the energy efficient implementation of a solar thermal power plant into an existing district heating grid is demonstrated.

Wind speed and solar irradiance forecasting techniques for enhanced renewable energy integration with the grid: a review

“…There are about 14 operating global NWP models worldwide that can be used in solar irradiance forecasting [24]. The two most well‐known ones are the Global Forest System (GFS) and the Integrated Forecast System (IFS).…”

A study on the minimum duration of training data to provide a high accuracy forecast for PV generation between two different climatic zones

“…The output prediction of the normalized value at time (h þ 1) is a multivariate polynomial function of the input variables: e P m ðh þ 1Þ ¼ b 1 $P m ðhÞ$NðhÞ$T a ðhÞ þ b 2 $P m ðhÞ$NðhÞ þ b 3 $P m ðhÞ$T a ðhÞ þ b 4 $NðhÞ$T a ðhÞ þ b 5 $P m ðhÞ þ b 6 NðhÞ þ b 7 T a ðhÞ þ b 8 (8) The coefficients of the multivariate polynomial function are estimated from the historical data using the LevenbergeMarquardt nonlinear least squares algorithm [29]. This algorithm allows to determine the set of parameters b giving the minimal squares of the deviations:…”

Overview of Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Prediction

“…In Traunmüller and Steinmaurer (2010), a clear sky model is combined with cloud cover forecasts, derived from meteorologists by analyzing and comparing the output of different global and local NWP models. Especially, in difficult forecast situations, such as fog, this method offers potential for improvements of the irradiance forecasts.…”