Solar power needs a more ambitious cost target

Sivaram, Varun; Kann, Shayle

doi:10.1038/nenergy.2016.36

Cited by 73 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…This literature typically includes, at most, energy and capacity value. Other literature relies on modeled (and typically higher VRE penetration) scenarios (e.g., Mills and Wiser 2012a, Hirth 2013Hirth, Ueckerdt, and Edenhofer 2015;Lamont 2008;Bushnell 2010;Green and Léautier 2015;Sivaram and Kann 2016;Olson and Jones 2012;Winkler, Pudlik, et al 2016;Levin and Botterud 2015;Bistline 2017;Birk and Tabors 2017;Agora 2015;Riva, Hethey, and Vitina 2017;Obersteiner and Saguan 2011;Gilmore et al 2014;MIT 2015). This literature typically includes energy and capacity value, and sometimes includes aspects of balancing and transmission.…”

Section: System Value Of Vre and Changes In Value With Penetrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

Wiser

Mills

Seel

et al. 2017

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and Patrick Brown (MIT). Of course, any omissions or errors that remain are solely the responsibility of the authors. penetrations increase, but sometimes come at a cost to the consumer that is not always accounted for in generation portfolio decision-making. (see Chapters 2 and 5) All generation types are unique in some respect-bringing benefits and challenges to the power system-and wholesale markets, industry investments, and operational procedures have evolved over time to manage the characteristics of a changing generation fleet. With increased VRE penetrations, power system planners, operators, regulators, and policymakers will continue to be challenged to develop methods to smoothly and cost-effectively manage the reliable integration of these new and growing sources of electricity supply. Less-liquid bilateral markets exist outside of ISO/RTO regions. Note also that substantial amounts of generation even in ISO/RTO regions are locked-into longer-term physical or financial contracts, in which case available wholesale market prices signal opportunity costs but may not affect immediate revenue generation for those existing generators; wholesale pricing will, of course, still affect market entry decisions for new generation. 2 Where active wholesale markets do not exist, the same basic dynamics hold: the declining cost of natural gas, for example, puts economic pressure on inflexible units even in markets that do not feature an ISO/RTO.

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Section: System Value Of Vre and Changes In Value With Penetrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

Wiser

Mills

Seel

et al. 2017

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“…Most prominently, the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative has sought to make solar energy cost-competitive with other forms of electricity by the end of the decade, with an initial goal of $1/W by 2020, and an additional 50% reduction by 2030. 1 Others have argued that even deeper cost reductions may be needed over the longer-term, given the declining value of solar with increasing grid penetration, suggesting a goal of $0.25/W by 2050 (Sivaram and Kann 2016). As public and private investments in these efforts have grown, so too has the need for comprehensive and reliable data on the cost and price of PV systems, in order to track progress towards cost reduction targets, gauge the efficacy of existing programs, and identify opportunities for further cost reduction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking the Sun 10: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

Barbose

Darghouth

Millstein

et al. 2017

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“…2 Others have argued that even deeper cost reductions may be needed over the longer-term, given the declining value of solar with increasing grid penetration, suggesting a goal of $0.25/W by 2050 (Sivaram and Kann 2016). As public and private investments in these efforts have grown, so too has the need for comprehensive and reliable data on the cost and price of PV systems, in order to track progress towards cost reduction targets, gauge the efficacy of existing programs, and identify opportunities for further cost reduction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking the Sun IX: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

Barbose

Darghouth

Millstein

et al. 2016

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Executive SummaryNow in its ninth edition, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)'s Tracking the Sun report series is dedicated to summarizing trends in the installed price of grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The present report focuses on residential and non-residential systems installed through year-end 2015, with preliminary trends for the first half of 2016. An accompanying LBNL report, Utility-Scale Solar, addresses trends in the utility-scale sector. This year's report incorporates a number of important changes and enhancements from prior editions. Among those changes, LBNL has made available a public data file containing all non-confidential project-level data underlying the analysis in this report. 1 Installed pricing trends presented within this report derive primarily from project-level data reported to state agencies and utilities that administer PV incentive programs, solar renewable energy credit (SREC) registration systems, or interconnection processes. Refer to the text box to the right for several key notes about these data. In total, data were collected and cleaned for more than 820,000 individual PV systems, representing 85% of U.S. residential and non-residential PV systems installed cumulatively through 2015 and 82% of systems installed in 2015. The analysis in this report is based on a subset of this sample, consisting of roughly 450,000 systems with available installed price data.Key findings from this year's report are as follows, with all numerical results denoted in real 2015 dollars and direct current (DC) Watts (W):Installed Prices Continued to Decline through 2015 and into 2016. National median installed prices in 2015 declined year-over-year by $0.2/W (5%) for residential systems, by $0.3/W (7%) for non-residential systems ≤500 kW, and by $0.3/W (9%) for non-residential systems >500 kW. This continues the steady downward trend in PV system pricing, though the pace of decline is somewhat slower than in recent years. Preliminary data for the first half of 2016 show a mixed picture, but generally suggest that installed prices have continued to fall at a modest pace, at least within a number of key states and market segments. The slowing rate of decline may partly reflect a number of confounding factors could be offsetting underlying cost reductions. These include, for example, the increasing prevalence of solar loans with origination fees embedded in the installed price, greater use of module-level power electronics, module import tariffs, and a shift in the underlying geographical mix of the data sample towards more-expensive states (e.g., California). Recent Installed Price Reductions Key Points on the Data in This ReportThe installed price data analyzed in this report:• Represent the up-front price paid by the PV system owner, prior to receipt of incentives• Are self-reported by PV installers and host customers• Differ from the underlying cost borne by the developer and installer• Are historical and therefore may not be indicative of price...

show abstract

Solar power needs a more ambitious cost target

Cited by 73 publications

References 24 publications

Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

Tracking the Sun 10: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

Tracking the Sun IX: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

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