Solar total radiation input and terrestrial temperature in the two millennia of 600-2

Abstract

<p>The<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>long-term millennial oscillations of the baseline<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>solar background magnetic field (SBMF) and the ephemeris of<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>the Sun-Earth distances are compared with the oscillations of solar irradiance at the terrestrial biomass (Hallstatt's cycle). <span class="Apple-converted-space">   </span></p> <p>Based<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>the Sun-Earth distances derived from the current JPL ephemeris based on solar inertial motion and gravitational effects on the Sun by four large planets: Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus we<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>demonstrate the S-E distance is reduced by 0.005 au in the millennium M1 600-1600 and 0.011 au in millennium M2 1600-2600. We show that variations of the Sun-Earth distances<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>are accountable for the increase of the solar irradiance by about $20-25$ $Wm^{-2}$ since 1700 that will continue to last until 2500. he decrease of the S-E distance per century in the current millennium follows the<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>rate of the terrestrial temperature increase reported since MM. We evaluate that this difference of the Sun-Earth distances caused by SIM<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>leads to the different magnitudes of solar irradiance deposited in the Northern and Southern hemispheres<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>in M2 with thee Northern hemisphere to obtain more radiation compared to the Southern one. These estimations show that in the next 600 years the Sun will continue moving towards the Earth<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>that will result in a further increase of solar irradiance and the baseline terrestrial temperature<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>in 2500-2600. These variations are expected to be over-imposed by a reduction of solar activity during two grand solar minima (GSMs) with a reduce terrestrial temperatures by 1C<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>to occur<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>in 2020-2053 and 2370-2415.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>

Terrestrial Temperature, Sea Levels and Ice Area Links with Solar Activity and Solar Orbital Motion

“…We explored the two sets of the terrestrial temperature variations obtained since 1850 using the wavelet analysis and detected in the GLB datasets a clear period of 21.4 and 36 years, while in the Had-CRUTS dataset only weaker indication of the period of about 19.6 years. This 21.4 y period is clearly associated with the variations of solar activity defined by the eigenvectors of the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) [52,53]. A similar period of 21.4 years was also reported previously in the frequency of volcanic eruptions [69].…”

“…The wavelet analysis of ice area coverage in Arctic shows (Figure 7) for the Arctic ice (top plot) and Antarctica ice (bottom plot). It can be observed that the Arctic ice areas change periodically with a period of 10.7 years that is the averaged period of solar activity defined by the averaged sunspot numbers [52,53]. While Antarctica's ice areas do not reveal this link with the solar activity showing some periods of 5.6 and 15.6 years within the 95% confidence level, possibly, affected by some local events.…”

“…The most important feature derived from these two series of terrestrial temperature is the presence of the statistically significant period of 21.4 and 26 years in the GLB series less pronounced at 19.6 years in the HadCRUTS series corresponding to the period of a solar magnetic activity cycle derived in the earlier papers for the summary curve of eigenvectors of the SBMF [43,52,53] and the frequency of volcanic eruptions [69].…”

“…On the other hand, in the past few hundred years the Sun has been shown to provide some additional radiation to the Earth by moving closer towards the Earth's orbit because of the solar inertial motion (SIM) caused by the gravitation of the large planets [50][51][52][53]. These periodic variations of the Sun-Earth distance, and the solar irradiance, occur every 2100 -2200 years, called Hallstatt's cycles, which were independently derived from the isotope abundances in the terrestrial biomass [54,55].…”

Revealing Coupled Periodicities in Sunspot Time Series Using Bispectrum—An Inverse Problem

“…Initial strides have also been made in reconstructing solar total and spectral irradiance values over millennia. Valentina Zharkova et al [3] conducted a comprehensive exploration of the periodicities of solar activity and radiation, reaching back centuries and millennia. This research incorporates the data from various sources, including the Holocene data of solar irradiance derived from the abundance of the 14C isotope.…”