Solar Wind Speed Estimate with Machine Learning Ensemble Models for LISA

Abstract

In this work we study the potentialities of machine learning models in reconstructing the solar wind speed observations gathered in the first Lagrangian point by the ACE satellite in 2016--2017 using as input data galactic cosmic-ray flux variations measured with particle detectors hosted on board the LISA Pathfinder mission also orbiting around L1 during the same years. We show that ensemble models composed of heterogeneous weak regressors are able to outperform weak regressors in terms of predictive accuracy. Machine learning and other powerful predictive algorithms open a window on the possibility of substituting dedicated instrumentation with software models acting as surrogates for diagnostics of space missions such as the European Space Agency LISA mission and space weather science.