Objective
To predict first trimester pregnancy outcome using biomarkers in a multi-center cohort.
Design
Case-control study
Setting
Three academic centers
Patients
Women with pain and bleeding in early pregnancy
Interventions
Sera from women 5-12 weeks’ gestational age (GA) with ectopic pregnancy (EP), viable intrauterine pregnancy (IUP), and miscarriage (SAB) was analyzed via ELISA and immunoassay for Activin A (AA), Inhibin A (IA), Progesterone (P4), ADAM12, PAPP-A, pregnancy specific beta-glycoprotein-1 (SP1), Placental-like growth factor (PlGF), Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), Glycodelin (Glyc), and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG). Classification trees were developed to optimize sensitivity/specificity for pregnancy location and viability.
Main Outcome Measure(s)
Area under receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of first trimester pregnancy outcome.
Results
In 230 pregnancies, the combination of trees to maximize sensitivity and specificity resulted in 73% specificity, (95% CI [0.65-0.80]) and 31% sensitivity (95% CI [0.21-0.43]) for viability. Similar methods had 21% sensitivity (95% CI [0.12-0.32]) and 33% specificity (95% CI [0.26-0.41]) for location. AA, Glyc, and ADAM12 definitively classified pregnancy location in 29% of the sample with 100% accuracy for EP. P4 and PAPP-A classified the viability in 61% of the sample with 94% accuracy.
Conclusions
Multiple marker panels can distinguish pregnancy location and viability in a subset of women at risk for early pregnancy complications. This strategy of combining markers to maximize sensitivity and specificity results in high accuracy in a subset of subjects. Activin A, ADAM12, and Glycodelin are the most promising markers for pregnancy location; Progesterone and PAPP-A for viability.