Somali Ventures in China: Trade and Mobility in a Transnational Economy

Lochery, Emma

doi:10.1017/asr.2019.54

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…The country has connecting flights with multiple countries (UAE, Turkey, Kenya, Ethiopia, Qatar) that have several daily flights with China and in two cases (Turkey, UAE) with Wuhan . Moreover, news articles reported at least 34 Somali students in Wuhan , with the entire Somali diaspora likely to be larger, as trade and general economic relations between China and Somalia have been expanding in the last two decades, resulting in a growing Somali (and other African) diaspora in China 41 . Larger neighbouring countries Kenya and Ethiopia have far more extensive trade 42 and travel flows with China, making indirect importation to Somalia possible, but implying that earlier introduction dates could have happened for those countries as well.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020

et al. 2022

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Background: In countries with weak surveillance systems, confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are likely to underestimate the pandemic’s death toll. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data of cemeteries in Mogadishu, Somalia during 2020 to estimate the date of introduction and other epidemiologic parameters of the early spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in this low-income, crisis-affected setting. Methods: We performed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting with an age-structured compartmental COVID-19 model to provide median estimates and credible intervals for the date of introduction, the basic reproduction number (R0) and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) up to August 2020. Results: Under the assumption that excess deaths in Mogadishu March-August 2020 were attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections, we arrived at median estimates of November-December 2019 for the date of introduction and low R0 estimates (1.4-1.7) reflecting the slow and early rise and long plateau of excess deaths. The date of introduction, the amount of external seeding, the infection fatality rate (IFR) and the effectiveness of NPIs are correlated parameters and not separately identifiable in a narrow range from deaths data. Nevertheless, to obtain introduction dates no earlier than November 2019 a higher population-wide IFR (≥0.7%) had to be assumed than obtained by applying age-specific IFRs from high-income countries to Somalia’s age structure. Conclusions: Model fitting of excess mortality data across a range of plausible values of the IFR and the amount of external seeding suggests an early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia in November-December 2019. Transmissibility in the first epidemic wave was estimated to be lower than in European settings. Alternatively, there was another, unidentified source of sustained excess mortality in Mogadishu from March to August 2020.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The country has connecting flights with multiple countries (UAE, Turkey, Kenya, Ethiopia, Qatar) that have several daily flights with China and in two cases (Turkey, UAE) with Wuhan (37). Moreover, news articles reported at least 34 Somali students in Wuhan (38), with the entire Somali diaspora likely to be larger, as trade and general economic relations between China and Somalia have been expanding in the last two decades, resulting in a growing Somali (and other African) diaspora in China (39). Larger neighbouring countries Kenya and Ethiopia have far more extensive trade (40,41) and travel (42,43) flows with China, making indirect importation to Somalia possible, but implying that earlier introduction dates could have happened for those countries as well.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of SARS-CoV-2 in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of 2020 excess mortality data

Koltai

Warsame

Bashiir

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Introduction In countries with weak surveillance systems confirmed COVID-19 deaths are likely to underestimate the death toll of the pandemic. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data on burial patterns in Mogadishu, Somalia during 2020 to estimate the date of introduction, transmissibility and other epidemiologic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 in this low-income, crisis-affected setting. Methods We performed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting with an age-structured compartmental COVID-19 model to provide median estimates and credible intervals for the date of introduction, the basic reproduction number (R0) and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in Mogadishu up to September 2020. Results Under the assumption that excess deaths in Mogadishu February-September 2020 were directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection we arrived at median estimates of October-November 2019 for the date of introduction and low R0 estimates (1.3-1.5) stemming from the early and slow rise of excess deaths. The effect of control measures on transmissibility appeared small. Conclusion Subject to study assumptions, a very early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia. Estimated transmissibility in the first epidemic wave was lower than observed in European settings.

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Migration in sub-Saharan Africa: The Somali refugee and migrant experience

Ibrahim¹,

Malik²,

Wielenga³

2020

Afr. stud. rev.

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Abstract:This forum contributes to debates on migration, displacement, and place-making in contemporary sub-Saharan Africa. We bring together an interdisciplinary group of scholars to move the existing literature beyond the dominant focus on the causes of displacement to a rich and granular exploration of its consequences. The forum focuses on Somali refugees and migrants for two reasons. First, Somalia is one of the largest refugee-producing countries in the world. Second, depending on the host states in which they find themselves, Somali migrants and refugees can encounter many different fates, ranging from living in refugee camps to migrating to other countries in sub-Saharan Africa to a small minority being resettled in countries of the global north. These varied circumstances make it possible to study strategies of place-making among Somali communities from several different perspectives. A central theme of this forum is to highlight the agency of migrants and refugees and to emphasize the fact that these groups are more than mere victims of their circumstances. The articles in this volume will be of interest to scholars of African studies, anthropology, comparative politics, migration studies, peace studies, and Somali studies.

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Somali Ventures in China: Trade and Mobility in a Transnational Economy

Cited by 5 publications

References 50 publications

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of satellite-based excess mortality data in 2020

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of SARS-CoV-2 in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of 2020 excess mortality data

Migration in sub-Saharan Africa: The Somali refugee and migrant experience

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