Some a Priori Pathometric Equations

Ross, Ronald

doi:10.1136/bmj.1.2830.546

Cited by 129 publications

(79 citation statements)

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“…The irony lies in the fact that Brownlee was the major proponent of the theory of changes in disease infectivity during the course of epidemic cycles. Brownlee's hypothesis was in direct conflict with earlier work by William Hamer (Hamer, 1906) and Ronald Ross (Ross, 1908(Ross, , 1911(Ross, , 1915(Ross, , 1916(Ross, , 1917, both of whom believed that the so-called 'mass action' principle of transmission (the idea that the net rate of spread is dependent on the density of infectious people times the density of susceptible individuals) explained the regular recurrence of measles epidemics. Although instrumental in providing statistical evidence for the regularity of recurrent epidemics (employing the 'method of periodograms'; see Brownlee, 1918), the demise of Brownlee's theory of infectivity followed shortly after his death in 1927.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Oscillatory fluctuations in the incidence of infectious disease and the impact of vaccination: time series analysis

Anderson

Grenfell

May

1984

J. Hyg.

156

133

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SUMMARYThis paper uses the techniques of time series analysis (autocorrelation and spectral analysis) to examine oscillatory secular trends in the incidence of infectious diseases and the impact of mass vaccination programmes on these well-documented phenomena. We focus on three common childhood diseases: pertussis and mumps (using published disease-incidence data for England and Wales) and measles (using data from England and Wales, Scotland, North America and France). Our analysis indicates highly statistically significant seasonal and longer-term cycles in disease incidence in the prevaccination era. In general, the longer-term fluctuations (a 2-year period for measles, 3-year periods for pertussis and mumps) account for most of the cyclical variability in these data, particularly in the highly regular measles series for England and Wales. After vaccination, the periods of the longer-term oscillations tend to increase, an observation which corroborates theoretical predictions. Mass immunization against measles (which reduces epidemic fluctuations) magnifies the relative importance of the seasonal cycles. By contrast, we show that high levels of vaccination against whooping cough in England and Wales appear to have suppressed the annual cycle.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Oscillatory fluctuations in the incidence of infectious disease and the impact of vaccination: time series analysis

Anderson

Grenfell

May

1984

J. Hyg.

156

133

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“…O século XX assistiria à revolução quantitativa em epidemiologia. Ross 15 , no início do século já iniciara a formulação dos primeiros modelos matemáticos. Durante os anos '20 e '30 este aperfeiçoamento ganha corpo com os trabalhos de Frost e Reed 17 .…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Considerações acerca dos fundamentos teóricos da explicação em epidemiología

Silva

1985

Rev. Saúde Pública

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Considerações acerca dos fundamentos teóricos da explicação em epidemiología. Rev. Saúde públ., S. Paulo, 19 :377-83, 1985. RESUMO: São analisadas as condições históricas do surgimento da epidemiologia como disciplina científica, em meados do século passado. É revista a evolução das bases teóricas do processo explicativo em epidemiologia até o momento atual. Especial atenção é dada ao papel da lógica positivista de Stuart Mill como base teórica da Epidemiologia até recentemente. São discutidas as alternativas teóricas correntes e proposta maior abertura da epidemiologia a diferentes correntes filosóficas como o caminho para o estabelecimento da epidemiologia como uma ciência madura. UNITERMOS: INTRODUÇÃOQuando surgiu durante o século passado, a epidemiologia tinha um objetivo eminentemente pragmático: fornecer subsídios para as ações de saúde pública. A revolução industrial fez surgir na Europa, a começar pela Inglaterra, um contexto sanitário até então inusitado na história ocidental: a concentração de grandes massas nos centros urbanos, que se expandiam rapidamente, trabalhando e vivendo em condições precárias fez surgir a Saúde Pública nos moldes que a conhecemos hoje 13 .Até então, a intervenção estatal na saúde havia se limitado, quase que exclusivamente, às epidemias e à principal via de introdução destas, os portos. Evidentemente que as condições de saúde da população estavam longe do ideal, mas, salvo nas epidemias, não chegavam a constituir ameaça à ordem social. O novo contexto criado pela revolução industrial, além de agravar as condições de habitação, criou fator de instabilidade social. Já no século XVIII surgem, principalmente na Inglaterra, relatórios sobre as más condições de vida e saúde da massa trabalhadora 3,14 . Durante toda a primeira metade do século XIX são publicados relatórios semelhantes. A inclinação política desses relatórios variava; no entanto, todos eram unânimes em apontar a indústria como o determinante maior. É nessa época também que vão surgindo os movimentos reivindicatórios de cunho socialista 6 . A doença já começa a ser vista do ponto de vista materialista-histórico 2 . A época é propícia para tal, uma vez que não havendo ainda se desenvolvido a teoria microbiana, não era tão fácil a interpretação positivista do processo saúde-doença.A primeira metade do século XIX assiste, na Inglaterra, à ascensão da burguesia ao poder político, através de uma série de reformas políticas, delegando à nobreza uma função meramente figurativa no aparato de Estado 5 . Paralelamente

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“…In recent years, transmission models have been used extensively to study epidemic and endemic infectious disease processes for a wide array of infectious diseases such as measles, tuberculosis, and more recently human immunodeficiency virus infection (5). In general, these models follow the postulate of Ross and Hamer that the rate at which susceptible individuals within a population become infected (the transmission rate) is proportional to both the current number of infectious and current number of susceptible individuals (7). Surprisingly, despite the increase in the use of disease transmission models to study infectious disease processes and despite the known, massive public health problems associated with infectious diarrhea and gastrointestinal illness worldwide, few publications have examined disease transmission through waterborne pathogens.…”

Section: The Use Of Mathematical Models As Tools For Public Health Pomentioning

confidence: 99%

Disease transmission models for public health decision making: analysis of epidemic and endemic conditions caused by waterborne pathogens.

Eisenberg

Brookhart

Rice

et al. 2002

Environ Health Perspect

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Developing effective policy for environmental health issues requires integrating large collections of information that are diverse, highly variable, and uncertain. Despite these uncertainties in the science, decisions must be made. These decisions often have been based on risk assessment. We argue that two important features of risk assessment are to identify research needs and to provide information for decision making. One type of information that a model can provide is the sensitivity of making one decision over another on factors that drive public health risk. To achieve this goal, a risk assessment framework must be based on a description of the exposure and disease processes. Regarding exposure to waterborne pathogens, the appropriate framework is one that explicitly models the disease transmission pathways of pathogens. This approach provides a crucial link between science and policy. Two studies--a Giardia risk assessment case study and an analysis of the 1993 Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Cryptosporidium outbreak--illustrate the role that models can play in policy making.

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Some a Priori Pathometric Equations

Cited by 129 publications

References 0 publications

Oscillatory fluctuations in the incidence of infectious disease and the impact of vaccination: time series analysis

Oscillatory fluctuations in the incidence of infectious disease and the impact of vaccination: time series analysis

Considerações acerca dos fundamentos teóricos da explicação em epidemiología

Disease transmission models for public health decision making: analysis of epidemic and endemic conditions caused by waterborne pathogens.

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