Some thoughts on the factors that controlled prehistoric maize production in the American Southwest with application to southwestern Colorado

Abstract

Some thoughts on the factors that controlled prehistoric maize production in the American Southwest with application to southwestern Colorado" (2013). USGS Some thoughts on the factors that controlled prehistoric maize production in the American Southwest with application to southwestern Colorado In this paper, we present a model of prehistoric southwestern Colorado maize productivity. The model is based on a tree-ring reconstruction of water-year precipitation for Mesa Verde for the period A.D. 480 to 2011. Correlation of historic Mesa Verde precipitation with historic precipitation at 11 other weather stations enabled the construction of an elevation-dependent precipitation function. Prehistoric water-year precipitation values for Mesa Verde together with the elevation-dependent precipitation function allowed construction of the elevation of southwest Colorado precipitation contours for each year since A.D. 480, including the 30-cm contour, which represents the minimum amount of precipitation necessary for the production of maize and the 50-cm contour, which represents the optimum amount of precipitation necessary for the production of maize. In this paper, calculations of prehistoric maize productivity and field life for any specific elevation are also demonstrated. These calculations were performed using organic nitrogen measurements made on seven southwestern Colorado soil groups together with values of reconstructed water-year precipitation and estimations of the organic nitrogen mineralization rate. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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“…1250 (Benson et al, 2013) (Fig. 9) whereas measured precipitation rates at Mesa Verde for the period 1896e2010 yield an average rate of 45.5 cm/yr.…”

“…9) whereas measured precipitation rates at Mesa Verde for the period 1896e2010 yield an average rate of 45.5 cm/yr. Given that the Mesa Verde weather station's precipitation record was increasingly compromised by missing daily values prior to 1949, estimation of precipitation rates from 1896 to 1948 was done using PRISM data from the grid point nearest the Mesa Verde weather station (Supplementary Appendix 2 in Benson et al, 2013). Thus the historical precipitation rates are considered representative of precipitation rates during the occupation of the Far View group.…”

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“…With climatic data available for simulating maize growth, it is time to turn to the maize crop itself. Estimations on the yields of traditional maize have been widely conducted in or nearby the study areas (King 1923, King and Leding 1926, King and Loomis 1932, cited in Hunt and Ingram unpublished 2; Castetter and Willis 1942 ; Burns 1983 ; Petersen 1987 ; Van West 1994 ; Diehl 1997 , 2005 ; Muenchrath et al 2002 ; Hunt and Ingram unpublished 2; Kohler 2012 ; Benson et al 2013 ). A literature review was given with respect to three aspects: location, period, and methodology, see Table 1 .…”

“…Several experimental studies are available on productivity of traditional maizes (several publications of King, Leding, and Loomis (1920s–1930s), Burns ( 1983 ), and Muenchrath et al ( 2002 )). Finally, simulation models based on experimental data have been used in Hunt and Ingram (unpublished); Kohler ( 2012 ), and Benson et al ( 2013 ) to estimate maize productivity. Kohler ( 2012 ) normalized maize yields from 1931 to 1960 and applied tree-ring based reconstructions of temperature to estimate the palmer drought severity index (PDSI) to produce prehistoric maize yields.…”

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“…The superficial explanation that drought alone caused the depopulation of the Mesa Verde region has proven unsatisfactory. Improved estimates of how environmental variation would have affected crop yields suggest that at no point in the region's occupation would rainfall amounts have precluded agricultural production (Benson et al 2013;Cordell et al 2007;Kohler 2012b;Kohler et al 2008b;Van West 1994). The Mesa Verde area was and is the most productive dry-farming region in the Southwest (J.…”