Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict

Abstract

With the disintegration of the USSR a conflict arose between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan over the transboundary Syr Darya river. Upstream Kyrgyzstan controls the Toktogul reservoir which generates hydropower demanded mainly in winter for heating. Downstream Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan need irrigation water in summer, primarily to grow an export crop (cotton). Regional agreements obliging Kyrgyzstan to higher summer discharges in exchange for fossil fuel transfers from downstream riparians in winter have been unsuccessful, due to lack of trust between the parties. Striving for self-sufficiency in irrigation water, Uzbekistan initiated new reservoir construction. This paper examines their economic impact. We report a laboratory experiment modelling the Syr Darya scenario as a multi-round, three-player trust game with non-binding contracts. Payoff schemes are estimated using real-life data. While basinwide efficiency maximisation requires regional cooperation, our results demonstrate that cooperation in the laboratory is hard to achieve. Uzbek reservoirs improve cooperation only weakly and their positive impact is limited to low-water years.

Tracking pollution and its sources in the catchment‐lake system of major waterbodies in Kazakhstan

“…Nitrate and ammonium also can flow into Shardara Reservoir in run‐off from livestock farms, with livestock grazing occurring mainly along the northern shore of the reservoir (Figure F). The predominant flow of Zn with the Syrdarya waters is attributable to the transboundary position of the river (Abbink, Moller, & O’Hara, ; Guo, Zhou, Xia, & Huang, ) which absorbs agricultural run‐off from the territory of neighbouring states. Irrigation fields are also located in the Keles River floodplain (Figure C), contributing to the overall pollution of the reservoir.…”

“…waters is attributable to the transboundary position of the river (Abbink, Moller, & O'Hara, 2010;Guo, Zhou, Xia, & Huang, 2016) which absorbs agricultural run-off from the territory of neighbouring states. Irrigation fields are also located in the Keles River floodplain ( Figure 2C), contributing to the overall pollution of the reservoir.…”

Pakistan’s Water Vulnerability and the Risk of Inter-State Conflict in South Asia

“…During the last two decades a significant number of studies have addressed the issue of scarcity or abundance of natural resources and their correlation with the likelihood of militarized or non-militarized interstate disputes (Gleick, 1993;Rogers, 1997;Beaumont, 1997;Haftendorn, 2000;Gleditsch, 2001;Klare, 2001;Lonergan, 2001;Renner, 2002;Yoffe et. al., 2004;Kalpakian, 2004;Abbink et. al., 2009;Molen & Hildering, 2005;Hensel & Brochmann, 2008).…”

Managing Central Asia’s transboundary rivers: case studies of the Zarafshan (Tajikistan/Uzbekistan) and Tarim (Kyrgyzstan/China) rivers

“…In the long-term, the climate change and the continuing socio-economic growth will reduce the water availability and increase the water demand (Dukhovny and de Schutter [5], Groll et al [7]), making water-based conflicts more likely. To mitigate these conflicts between upstream and downstream water users (both on national and international levels) interstate agreements and an integrated water resource management (IWRM) have to be implemented (Abbink et al [8]).…”