South Asian Monsoon Extremes and Climate Change

Yadav, Mamta

doi:10.1007/978-981-16-7727-4_4

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…The South Asian monsoon is a seasonal wind pattern that brings heavy rainfall to the Indian subcontinent and adjacent regions (Yadav, 2022). Its interaction with and extension into Central Asia involves several factors, including summer heating, seasonal wind reversal, mountain barriers, and upper‐level wind patterns (Rashid et al., 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Monsoon's Influence on Central Asia's Subsequent Periods of Drought and Flooding

Nzabarinda,

Bao,

Tie

et al. 2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Central Asia and its southern neighbors are being ravaged by more frequent and intense droughts and floods. While research on droughts is abundant, their interaction with floods and monsoons, especially when originating in the south, has been understudied. This study employed temperature, precipitation, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and agricultural drought indices such as water deficit index (WDI), cumulative water deficit (CWD), and Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) to investigate the role of monsoons in increasing drought and flooding in the southern part of central Asia, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, over a 31‐year period. Findings revealed increasing severity and intensity of droughts over time, along with their duration and peaks, contrasting with irregular fluctuations in flood intensity. Rising regional temperatures coincide with declining precipitation. During summer monsoon (SM), average precipitation ranged from 0.03 mm/day (2004) to 0.05 mm/day (2010), with variations across the region. The temperature varied between −14.35°C (2009) and 37.05°C (1991), with a sharp increase up to 0.114°C in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, as well as in northern Pakistan, Afghanistan, and western Tajikistan. A temperature drop during SM was revealed on the Mountains range of Himalaya, Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Parmir, Kunlun Shan and Tian Shan, and in Pakistan, down to −0.054°C. WDI showed a strong positive connection (0.71 and 0.64) with temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and a weak negative correlation (−0.5) with precipitation during normal time. However, during the monsoon season, it demonstrated a negative correlation with both within a no significant (−0.08) range for maximum temperature.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Monsoon's Influence on Central Asia's Subsequent Periods of Drought and Flooding

Nzabarinda,

Bao,

Tie

et al. 2024

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Therefore, a single ENSO event is unable to explain the rainfall pattern in the context of Santhal Pargana. From a wider viewpoint, the crippling of the easterly and south-easterly jet stream and the exhilaration of the equatorial ocean are two local events that typically influence the increasing tendency of rainfall at eastern portions of the Jharkhand (Yadav, 2022). The study of rainfall in these sections is devoted to local level variability of rainfall at six meteorological stations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Rainfall Using Two Statistical Data Driven Models: A Study on Santhal Pargana Division of Jharkhand State, India

Raha

Gayen

2022

Geos. Ind.

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Although the variability and prediction of rainfall is an essential issue of the Santhal Pargana Division of the Jharkhand State but the issue is still far from its’ conclusive statement till date. Therefore, this study aimed to simulate the monthly rainfall from 1901 to 2020 using an eight-step procedure. After downloading the monthly rainfall for the Santhal Pargana Division from 1901 to 2020, the TBATS and Naive models were used to simulate the rainfall. The accuracy assessment of each model was done by using the MASE, MAE, RMSE, ME, and R. For the Naïve model, the Godda station was noticed with a comparatively high combined error. The lowest combined error was found for the Pakur station in case of Naïve models. Similar result was also obtained for the TBATS model. The TBATS was found with comparatively higher accuracy, as the combined error was less for the TBATS. The spatial assessment for the standardized rainfall varied from 84.419 mm. to 149.225 mm. For the Naïve predicted model, the rainfall was marked in between 8.133 mm. to 67.059 mm. For the TBATS fitted model, the rainfall fluctuated from the 37.127 mm. to 62.993 mm. Dumka station was noticed with comparatively low rainfall (i.e.,37.127 mm.). Deoghar and Jamtara stations were marked with a moderate rainfall. Remaining stations were marked with higher amount of rainfall for the TBATS fitted model. The Wilcoxon test proved that each model was significant at 95% confidence interval. The result produced in this research is fruitful enough to be utilized for agricultural planning in the Santhal Pargana Division of the Jharkhand state, India. Keywords : TBATS model; Naive model; simulation; accuracy Copyright (c) 2022 Geosfera Indonesia and Department of Geography Education, University of Jember This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share A like 4.0 International License

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“…Such an attempt has not been made in the international literature thus far. Conversely, a strong correlation has been established between the El Niño/La Niña phenomena in the southern Pacific Ocean and its impact on global weather patterns (such as monsoons, e.g., [48][49][50], in the north Atlantic Ocean near the east coast of the United States and western Europe, e.g., [51,52]). Hazy evidence of a direct ENSO influence on the Mediterranean climate, e.g., [53], exists.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric Processes over the Broader Mediterranean Region: Effect of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation?

Kambezidis

2024

Atmosphere

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The Mediterranean area is considered a hot spot on our planet because it represents the crossroads of various aerosols. Several studies have shown that the weather in the region is affected by the North-Atlantic Oscillation, which, in turn, is well connected with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Nevertheless, no study has investigated the ENSO effect on the solar radiation and atmospheric aerosols in this region. The present study considers a greater area around the Mediterranean Sea over the period 1980–2022. The results show that there exists a loose but significant dependence, in some cases, of the optical properties of aerosols (aerosol optical depth, Ångström exponent, cloud optical depth) and solar radiation (net short-wave and net long-wave radiation, direct aerosol radiative forcing) on ENSO events. The results of this study provide motivation for further investigations, since such results can increase the accuracy of general circulation models that deal with climate change. Besides the ENSO effect, the enrichment of the Mediterranean atmosphere in suspended particles from great volcanic eruptions is shown. The inter-annual variation of the examined parameters is presented. A classification of the existing aerosols over the area is also provided.

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South Asian Monsoon Extremes and Climate Change

Cited by 5 publications

References 65 publications

The Monsoon's Influence on Central Asia's Subsequent Periods of Drought and Flooding

The Monsoon's Influence on Central Asia's Subsequent Periods of Drought and Flooding

Simulation of Rainfall Using Two Statistical Data Driven Models: A Study on Santhal Pargana Division of Jharkhand State, India

Atmospheric Processes over the Broader Mediterranean Region: Effect of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation?

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