Southern California basin and non-basin classification algorithm for ground-motion site amplification model applications

Abstract

In ground-motion modeling, the estimated level of ground shaking at any given location for an expected earthquake scenario depends on the contributions from the source component (type of fault mechanism and size of the fault slip), the path component (distance between the source and site of interest, and the geologic characteristics of that region), and the site component (the local geology at the site of interest). Each component captures some level of variability and uncertainty in the overall ground-motion estimate. In particular, the site component represents the potential amplification (or de-amplification) of the seismic waves that may lead to magnified and prolonged ground shaking at any given location. This feature is referred to as site effects and in current ground-motion models (GMMs) is dependent on the time-averaged shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the earth’s crust ( Vs30) and the depth to a particular shear wave velocity iso-surface (“basin depth,” zx). The latter is responsible for determining the contributions of basin effects, which is additional ground-motion amplification due to three-dimensional effects such as trapped seismic waves that lead to surface wave generation. However, an evaluation of the relationship between zx and basin locations reveals cases of misclassification that is a result of geologic variability (i.e. zx is not sufficient in differentiating basins from non-basins). The study performed in this article proposes a resolution in the form of a statistical classification model that determines the probability of a location residing within or outside a basin based on simple geologic features such as ground surface texture.