Southward shift of precipitation extremes over south Asia: Evidences from CORDEX data

Abstract

or the change in the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation extremes between the period 1930-1970 and 1971-2017. These periods are selected based on the climate regime shift in the 1970s. A jump in the mean and 95 th percentile of the daily annual precipitation is also noticed over India in the decade of 1970-1980 (please refer to the detailed discussion in the supplementary document). During the study of future precipitation, the areas affected by ISM are included in the study domain. Future precipitation extremes are analyzed using 7 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations to investigate -whether the behavior of precipitation extremes (their magnitude and spatial pattern) will be similar and, if yes, then what the possible causes are. The details of CORDEX models used in this study are provided in Table S1 (supplementary document). Three characteristics of annual daily precipitation, namely mean precipitation, and threshold (cut-off) and mean precipitation for days with extreme precipitation, are analyzed for their spatio-temporal changes. Two different thresholds (i.e., 95 th and 99 th percentile; henceforth represented as P95 and P99 respectively) are selected to identify the days with extreme precipitation. The mean of extreme precipitation magnitude equal to or greater than P95 and P99, are denoted by M95 and M99, respectively. Further, the reasons for the changes in the aforementioned precipitation characteristics are investigated by analyzing the air temperature, moisture flux, and moisture convergence from the observed data and future CORDEX simulations. Scientific RepoRtS |(2020) 10:6452 | https://doi.

Characterizing the tail behaviour of daily precipitation probability distributions over India using the obesity index

“…Jharkhand showed a change in the distribution and mean of OB for RCP 8.5 scenario only. Earlier studies (e.g., Maity et al ., 2016; Yaduvanshi et al ., 2021; Sannan et al ., 2020; Todmal, 2021; Suman and Maity, 2020) indicating an increase/decrease/no change in the frequency of occurrence of precipitation events under a different climate scenario in some of the regions mentioned above supports the finding of this study. Yaduvanshi et al .…”

“…The difference in the heaviness of the tails between the Eastern coast and Western coast (both belonging to Tropical regions) might be attributed to many interacting factors such as synoptic conditions, moisture convergence, topography (see Figure S9, different extreme rainfall characteristics such as mean annual maximum precipitation (see Figure S10), and seasonality (see Figure S11) (which represents the day of occurrence of extreme precipitation in a year) despite having similar elevation range. Interestingly, Suman and Maity (2020) also observed the differences in mean extreme precipitation on the eastern coast of South India than the western coast for the observed record. It is noteworthy that along with the relationship of OB with elevation, we found some spatial coherence of OB with the climate classes of the Köppen‐Geiger classification system.…”

Renewable Energy Transition for the Himalayan Countries Nepal and Bhutan: Pathways Towards Reliable, Affordable and Sustainable Energy for All

“…The reference year for this study was chosen as 2015, due to unavailability of the all the input data for the year 2020. The main energy balance constraint for the power sector optimisation is matching the power generation and demand for every hour of the applied transition years as shown in (2). For every hour of the year the total generation within a sub-region and electricity import cover the local electricity demand.…”

“…The sixth assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on impacts of global warming finds that, warming in the South Asian region is expected to be higher than the global average [1]. Consequently, resulting in changing monsoon patterns [2], rising sea levels [3] and melting glaciers [4], [5], drastically impacting the South Asian society. Nepal and Bhutan, two small countries situated on the Himalayan slopes, will be severely impacted by flooding due to glacier melt and irregular rainfalls; threatening the livelihood, food security, health and general wellbeing across these nations [6].…”

How far the CORDEX high-resolution data represents observed precipitation: an analysis across Indian mainland

“…A few studies focus on modelling the extreme events using the CORDEX data sets. For instance, Suman and Maity (2020) investigated the change in extreme events in different parts of the South Asia region. Pichuka and Maity (2020) check the efficacy of CORDEX in modelling the extreme events over Bhadra basin in contrast with traditional downscaling approaches.…”