This paper examines how economic policy-making changed as a result of the Asian crisis of 1997-1998, in the countries affected, in the region, and at the global level. It is perhaps surprising how little change has occurred in the broad approach to economic policy, but there is a much greater awareness of the vulnerabilities posed by large international capital flows. The broad tenets of the Washington Consensus, with its market-based policies, remain in place, but there is a recognition that well-functioning markets require complex institutions, rules, and procedures, and that these take time and effort to develop. Most of this institutional development will have to take place at the national level, but regional arrangements can offer support, and multilateral agencies, such as the International Monetary Fund, have learned from the crisis. 55 common paradigm or approach to economic policy has changed. Section 4 examines the global response -principally its effect on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), both operationally and in its understanding of how the world works.
What Were the Lessons?There was no shortage of explanations offered for the crisis, including crony capitalism, corruption, exchange rates that were neither irrevocably fixed nor completely free to float, absence of democracy, governance deficiencies, moral hazard, and lack of transparency. Most of these explanations seem unsatisfying, if only because these circumstances had existed during three decades of extraordinary growth. For an economist, the key problem was excessive foreign capital inflows in the 5 years or so before the crisis, which fed a local asset boom and created the potential for volatile outflows (a "sudden-stop" capital crisis), combined with weak banking systems. This might be contrasted with earlier crisis experience, particularly in Latin America during the first half of the 1980s, where the capital reversals were symptomatic of other serious domestic macro imbalances. 2 For Asia, good macro policies (balanced budgets, modest current account deficits, 3 and tolerably low inflation) were not enough. The problems were not foreseen, and even as the crisis unfolded, its true dimensions were not recognized. With the nature and extent of the problem misdiagnosed and the centrality of the capital flow issues unacknowledged, the immediate policy response was "When in doubt, tighten policy." The tightening of fiscal policy was inappropriate, and the interest rates increases did little to counter the capital reversals. The lender-of-last-resort facilities -both domestic and foreign (via the IMF) were clumsy, with tranching of urgently needed foreign funds and distracting conditionality, and both bank restructuring and private debt resolution were tardy. It was not until the South Korean crisis late in 1997 that an effective response to capital flight and private debt rescheduling was developed or rediscovered. For a useful account of the crisis, although less critical of the IMF than this author, see International Monetary Fund Indepe...