Spatial Analysis of Dengue Disease in Jakarta Province

Abstract

Dengue disease is a virus-borne illness spread by the bite of the female Aedes aegypti mosquito. Jakarta Province has a vulnerability to dengue disease due to high population density and percentage of urban slum households. This study applied a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model to identify the risk factors that affect the number of dengue disease cases in Jakarta Province. The spatial dependency was accounted for using the queen contiguity spatial weight matrix. The number of flood-prone points, the number of slum neighborhood associations, the population density, the number of hospitals and the number of public health centers per 1,000 population and spatial lag significantly impact the number of dengue disease cases in Jakarta Province. When dengue disease cases increase in one sub-district, the number of dengue disease cases in the sub-districts around it will increase as well because of the positive and significant spatial lag coefficient. Based on the direct impact, each addition of one percent of flood-prone points in one sub-district will increase the number of dengue disease cases in that sub-district by 3.86 cases