Spatial analysis of economic and social determinants of vote: the case of the European Parliament and constitutional referendum votes in Italy

Abstract

The 2014 European Parliament election and the 2016 Constitutional Referendum in Italy occurred in the middle of two general elections. These votes, taking place respectively at the beginning and the end of the government led by Matteo Renzi of the Democratic Party (PD), represented a public test of the PD leadership. The election results were diverse in many respects, but they replicate social, economic, political, and cultural differences. In particular, between the two electoral exercises the differential electoral behaviour of South compared with the rest of the country is deepened. Moreover, the results can be interpreted as the outcome of differences in age, educational levels, social, and economic unrest; all these variables are synthesized by the territorial distribution of the vote and this helps in interpreting the evolution of political sentiment in Italy. A spatial statistics methodology is utilized to analyse votes by means of their territorial distributions. The outcomes indicate that referendum result was influenced by the economic vote. Apart from the substance of the constitutional reform, the referendum result can be traced back to economic factors: the absence of perceived economic improvements and the persistence of high unemployment.

Conflicting messages of electoral protest: The role of systemic and elite discontent in the Italian 2016 constitutional referendum

“…Previous research on Italian politics and the referendum in particular guides the selection of control variables. Truglia and Zeli (2019) suggest geographical, economical, and educational components of the vote. As such, we include a variable for ( zone ) dividing the regions into North-West, North-East, Centre, South, and Islands.…”

From Chianti to the Apennines: The fall of the left‐wing parties' predominance in Tuscany

“…The significant decrease in PD votes between these two electoral returns occurred because of the reasons highlighted before: the erosion of old social values such as solidarity well rooted in the territory, and the unresolved effects of the economic crisis. Together with these long run dynamics, we have to suggest other facts such as the election of Renzi (the former major of Florence) as party leader that moved the party further towards centrist and liberalist positions, and the substantial failure of the Renzi government to fight unemployment in Italy as a whole and more specifically in Tuscany (Truglia & Zeli, 2020).…”

“…When the subprime crisis occurred (between 2009 and 2011), the economic framework, strongly locally rooted and linked to left‐wing parties, also began to suffer and unemployment increased (Truglia & Zeli, 2020). The governing parties (led by the PD) were considered responsible for the economic crisis.…”

Local David Versus Global Goliath: Populist Parties and the Decline of Progressive Politics in Italy

“…The reshaping of Italian political system, with the rise of populist parties and the crisis of progressive forces, has been accompanied by substantial changes in the geographical distribution of voting preferences (Bordignon, Ceccarini, and Diamanti 2018). In particular, compared to 2013 elections, the center-left experienced strong losses in rural areas, while it was actually able to increase its votes in the more affluent city centers of the big and populous cities, as well in those areas with a higher share of people with a tertiary degree (Truglia and Zeli 2020;Cataldi and Emanuele 2013;. This does not completely reverse Italian political geography: in Changes appear to go in a certain way: the center-left is becoming stronger across those territories inhabited by people usually interpreted as the winners from modernization, while the M5S and the Lega better represent the losers (although of different kinds, see Chiaramonte and De Sio 2019;Levi and Patriarca 2020).…”