Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human Parainfluenza Virus, and Human Adenoviruses Cases in Kenya 2007-2013

Abstract

Background: Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (HRSV), Human Parainfluenza Virus (HPIV), and Human Adenovirus (HAdV) epidemics differ in geographical location, time, and virus type. Regions prone to infections can be identified using geographic information systems (GIS) and available methods for detecting spatial and time clusters. We sought to find statistically significant spatial and time clusters of HRSV, HPIV, and HAdV cases in different parts of Kenya. Methods: To analyse retrospective data, we used a geographical information system (GIS) and the spatial scan statistic. The information was gathered from surveillance sites and aggregated at the county level in order to identify purely spatial and Spatio-temporal clusters. To detect the presence of spatial autocorrelation, the local Moran’s I test was used. To detect the spatial clusters of HRSV, HPIV, and HAdV cases, we performed the purely spatial scan statistic. Furthermore, space-time clusters were identified using space-time scan statistics. Both spatial and space-time analyses were based on the discrete Poisson model with a pre-specified statistical significance levelof p<0.05 Results: The findings showed that HRSV, HPIV, and HAdV cases had significant autocorrelation within the study areas. Furthermore, in the Western region of the country, the three respiratory viruses had local clusters with significant positive autocorrelation (p<0.05). Statistically, the Western region had significant spatial clusters of HRSV, HPIV, and HAdV occurrence. Furthermore, the space-time analysis revealed that the HPIV primary cluster persisted in the Western region from 2007 to 2013. However, primary clusters of HRSV and HAdV were observed in the Coastal region in 2009-11 and 2008-09, respectively. Conclusion: Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV), human parainfluenza virus (HPIV), and human adenovirus (HAdV) hotspots (clusters) occurred in Kenya’s Western and Coastal regions from 2007 to 2013. The Western region appeared to be more prone to the occurrence of allthree respiratory viruses throughout the study period.Strategic mitigation should focus on these locations to prevent future clusters of HRSV, HPIV, and HAdV infections that could lead to epidemics.