Spatial and temporal changes in runoff caused by climate change in a complex large river basin in Oregon

Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il‐Won

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.04.040

Cited by 151 publications

(146 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…In the URB, there is high uncertainty and variability across the GCMs as can be seen in the wide variation of temperature and precipitation change throughout the 21st century ( Figure 3). Mean temperature increases 3.3 • C by the end of the century in RCP 8.5, similar to a +3.2 • C increase by the 2080s predicted by Chang and Jung [8], in the Willamette River, OR. Dickerson-Lange and Mitchell [62], predicted a 1.8-3.5 • C mean increase in spring and summer temperatures by the 2050s in one scenario in northwestern Washington.…”

Section: Temperature and Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 69%

“…Precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature and solar radiation are the primary inputs into PRMS to compute a water balance and energy balance for individual hydrologic response units (HRUs) with distributed parameters [43]. It has been used extensively in assessing changes in runoff resulting from climate change [8].…”

Section: Hydrologic Model: Precipitation Runoff Modeling Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Pacific Northwest, climate change impacts include shifts in the magnitude and timing of runoff [8][9][10][11], reduced proportion of precipitation falling as snow in montane regions [12,13], decreases in snow water equivalent [14,15] and an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts [11,16,17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA

Yazzie

Chang

2017

Climate

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This study analyzed watershed response to climate change and forest fire impacts in the upper Umatilla River Basin (URB), Oregon, using the precipitation runoff modeling system. Ten global climate models using Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the effects of climate and fire-burns on runoff behavior throughout the 21st century. We observed the center timing (CT) of flow, seasonal flows, snow water equivalent (SWE) and basin recharge. In the upper URB, hydrologic regime shifts from a snow-rain-dominated to rain-dominated basin. Ensemble mean CT occurs 27 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 33 days earlier in RCP 8.5, in comparison to historic conditions (1980s) by the end of the 21st century. After forest cover reduction in the 2080s, CT occurs 35 days earlier in RCP 4.5 and 29 days earlier in RCP 8.5. The difference in mean CT after fire-burns may be due to projected changes in the individual climate model. Winter flow is projected to decline after forest cover reduction in the 2080s by 85% and 72% in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, in comparison to 98% change in ensemble mean winter flows in the 2080s before forest cover reduction. The ratio of ensemble mean snow water equivalent to precipitation substantially decreases by 81% and 91% in the 2050s and 2080s before forest cover reduction and a decrease of 90% in RCP 4.5 and 99% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s after fire-burns. Mean basin recharge is 10% and 14% lower in the 2080s before fire-burns and after fire-burns, and it decreases by 13% in RCP 4.5 and decreases 22% in RCP 8.5 in the 2080s in comparison to historical conditions. Mixed results for recharge after forest cover reduction suggest that an increase may be due to the size of burned areas, decreased canopy interception and less evaporation occurring at the watershed surface, increasing the potential for infiltration. The effects of fire on the watershed system are strongly indicated by a significant increase in winter seasonal flows and a slight reduction in summer flows. Findings from this study may improve adaptive management of water resources, flood control and the effects of fire on a watershed system.

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Section: Temperature and Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 69%

Section: Hydrologic Model: Precipitation Runoff Modeling Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA

Yazzie

Chang

2017

Climate

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“…Globally, similar changes in streamflow have been reported for many alpine catchments, for example in British Columbia (Mandal and Simonovic, 2017), Oregon (Chang and Jung, 2010) and the Austrian Alps (Laghari et al, 2012). In addition to increased winter precipitation, a reduction in solid precipitation is often reported to lead to an earlier melt peak and further enhanced winter flow (Kundzewicz, 2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 52%

Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River, New Zealand)

Jobst

Kingston

Cullen

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. As climate change is projected to alter both temperature and precipitation, snow-controlled mid-latitude catchments are expected to experience substantial shifts in their seasonal regime, which will have direct implications for water management. In order to provide authoritative projections of climate change impacts, the uncertainty inherent to all components of the modelling chain needs to be accounted for. This study assesses the uncertainty in potential impacts of climate change on the hydro-climate of a headwater sub-catchment of New Zealand's largest catchment (the Clutha River) using a fully distributed hydrological model (WaSiM) and unique ensemble encompassing different uncertainty sources: general circulation model (GCM), emission scenario, bias correction and snow model. The inclusion of snow models is particularly important, given that (1) they are a rarely considered aspect of uncertainty in hydrological modelling studies, and (2) snow has a considerable influence on seasonal patterns of river flow in alpine catchments such as the Clutha. Projected changes in river flow for the 2050s and 2090s encompass substantial increases in streamflow from May to October, and a decline between December and March. The dominant drivers are changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation (for the 2090s +29 to +84 % in winter) and substantial decreases in the seasonal snow storage due to temperature increase. A quantitative comparison of uncertainty identified GCM structure as the dominant contributor in the seasonal streamflow signal (44-57 %) followed by emission scenario (16-49 %), bias correction (4-22 %) and snow model (3-10 %). While these findings suggest that the role of the snow model is comparatively small, its contribution to the overall uncertainty was still found to be noticeable for winter and summer.

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“…Several studies by Hamlet and others in 2007 have been done about the potential impact of climate change on water resources, including the impact on water quantity, hydrology and water demand. Chang and Jung [2] examined annual runoff, seasonal and minimum and maximum values of runoff and uncertainty in the 218 Sub basin Willamette river in Oregon. The results showed that increased in seasonal changes runoff during the winter and decreased during the summer and change in temporal and spatial of runoff in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Runoff Changes under Climate Change Scenarios in the Dam Basin of Ekbatan, Hamedan Iran

Nazari¹,

Kardavany²,

Farajirad³

et al. 2016

J Climatol Weather Forecasting

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In this study, the uncertainty of the effects of climate change on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the watershed done using the output of models MPEH5, HADCM3 and IPCM4 under two scenarios for 2045-2065 period. After performance of LARS-WG model for downscaling of rainfall and temperature variations, the monthly change rainfall and temperature evaluated for the 2065-2045 period relative to 2010-1983 base period. Results showed that all three models based on two scenarios reduce the amount of rainfall and increases in average temperature in the region. The average annual temperature rise according to the scenario A2, 2/12°C and scenario B1, 1/12°C. The amount of rainfall decreases for the period 2045-2065 under the scenario A2, -6/1 and the scenario B1, -1/4 per cent. To study the effects of climate change on monthly runoff regime, production variables was used to the model of rainfall-runoff IHACRES after that runoff was predicted for the period 2065-2045. The results showed that annual river flow reduced under the A2 scenario -17/2 percent and the B1 scenario -19/4 per cent. The overall results showed that despite the uncertainty in climate models MPEH5, HADCM3 and IPCM4 under the A2 and B1 in the amount of temperature increase and rainfall decreases and negative effects of these changes on the runoff area.

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Spatial and temporal changes in runoff caused by climate change in a complex large river basin in Oregon

Cited by 151 publications

References 80 publications

Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA

Watershed Response to Climate Change and Fire-Burns in the Upper Umatilla River Basin, USA

Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River, New Zealand)

Assessment of Runoff Changes under Climate Change Scenarios in the Dam Basin of Ekbatan, Hamedan Iran

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