Spatial and temporal patterns of climate variations in the Kaidu River Basin of Xinjiang, Northwest China

Fu, Aihong; Chen, Y.N.; Li, W.H.; Li, B.F.; Yuhui, Yang; Zhang, S.H.

doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2013.08.041

Cited by 29 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The adjusted precipitation exhibited a strong increase (nearly 50% compared to Bayinbuluke station) based on the elevation difference. The adjusted mean annual precipitation in the Kaidu Basin was 425 mm (discussed in section 4.6, Figure a), which is generally consistent with precipitation ranges of 200–500 mm mentioned by previous study (Fu et al, ). Spatially, regionalized precipitation is consistent with the general precipitation distribution in the Tianshan Mountains where the western and northern Tianshan receive more precipitation (400–800 mm) (Chen, ).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Although uncertainties remain and it is impossible to validate the volume of annual precipitation in the Kaidu Basin without additional measurement data, the amount of precipitation in this study (approximately 425 mm per year) is in reasonable agreement with other studies according to which precipitation amounts range from about 200 to 500 mm in the Kaidu Basin (Fu et al, ). Spatially, the distribution of precipitation broadly agrees with the previously known precipitation patterns in the Tianshan Mountains according to which precipitation is higher in the adjacent northern Tianshan and the Yili River valley (400–800 mm per year; Chen, ), and the western Tianshan (Chinese part) receives more precipitation than the eastern part (Chen, ; Xu et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Snow accumulates from November to March and is released in the spring and summer. Thus, spring streamflow is dominated by snowmelt, and glacier meltwater contributes to summer streamflow, yet precipitation is the main source of discharge in summer (Deng et al, ; Fu et al, ). Base flow also contributes a vast proportion (41%) of water throughout the year (Chen et al, ).…”

Section: Study Area and Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Unraveling the Hydrology of the Glacierized Kaidu Basin by Integrating Multisource Data in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China

Shen

Fink

Kralisch

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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Understanding the water balance, especially as it relates to the distribution of runoff components, is crucial for water resource management and coping with the impacts of climate change. However, hydrological processes are poorly known in mountainous regions due to data scarcity and the complex dynamics of snow and glaciers. This study aims to provide a quantitative comparison of gridded precipitation products in the Tianshan Mountains, located in Central Asia and in order to further understand the mountain hydrology and distribution of runoff components in the glacierized Kaidu Basin. We found that gridded precipitation products are affected by inconsistent biases based on a spatiotemporal comparison with the nearest weather stations and should be evaluated with caution before using them as boundary conditions in hydrological modeling. Although uncertainties remain in this data‐scarce basin, driven by field survey data and bias‐corrected gridded data sets (ERA‐Interim and APHRODITE), the water balance and distribution of runoff components can be plausibly quantified based on the distributed hydrological model (J2000). We further examined parameter sensitivity and uncertainty with respect to both simulated streamflow and different runoff components based on an ensemble of simulations. This study demonstrated the possibility of integrating gridded products in hydrological modeling. The methodology used can be important for model applications and design in other data‐scarce mountainous regions. The model‐based simulation quantified the water balance and how the water resources are partitioned throughout the year in Tianshan Mountain basins, although the uncertainties present in this study result in important limitations.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Study Area and Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Unraveling the Hydrology of the Glacierized Kaidu Basin by Integrating Multisource Data in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China

Shen

Fink

Kralisch

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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“…As an effective and practical statistical method, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall significance test, widely applied in the research field of climate change, mainly aims to identify trend significance of discharge, precipitation, temperature, and other climate factors [74][75][76]. The Mann-Kendall test statistic Z c was estimated as follows:…”

Section: Mann-kendall Significance Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought and Associated Multi-Scale Response to Climate Change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Liu

Shan

et al. 2019

Remote Sensing

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Drought is one of the most widespread and threatening natural disasters in the world, which has terrible impacts on agricultural irrigation and production, ecological environment, and socioeconomic development. As a critical ecologically fragile area located in southwest China, the Yarlung Zangbo River (YZR) basin is sensitive and vulnerable to climate change and human activities. Hence, this study focused on the YZR basin and attempted to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of drought and associated multi-scale response to climate change based on the scPDSI (self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index) and CRU (climate research unit) data. Results showed that: (1) The YZR basin has experienced an overall wetting process from 1956 to 2015, while a distinct transition period in the mid 1990s (from wet to dry) was detected by multiple statistical methods. (2) Considering the spatial variation of the scPDSI, areas showing the significantly wetting process with increasing scPDSI values were mostly located in the arid upstream and midstream regions, which accounted for over 48% area of the YZR basin, while areas exhibiting the drying tendency with decreasing scPDSI values were mainly concentrated in the humid southern part of the YZR basin, dominating the transition period from wet to dry, to which more attention should be paid. (3) By using the EEMD (ensemble empirical mode decomposition) method, the scPDSI over the YZR basin showed quasi-3-year and quasi-9-year cycles at the inter-annual scale, while quasi-15-year and quasi-56-year cycles were detected at the inter-decadal scale. The reconstructed inter-annual scale showed a better capability to represent the abrupt change characteristic of drought, which was also more influential to the original time series with a variance contribution of 55.3%, while the inter-decadal scale could be used to portray the long-term drought variation process with a relative lower variance contribution of 29.1%. (4) The multi-scale response of drought to climate change indicated that changes of precipitation (PRE) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) were the major driving factors in the drought variation at different time scales. Compared with potential evapotranspiration (PET), DTR was a much more important climate factor associated with drought variations by altering the energy balance, which is more obvious over the YZR basin distributed with extensive snow cover and glaciers. These findings could provide important implications for ecological environment protection and sustainable socioeconomic development in the YZR basin and other high mountain regions.

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“…流域水循环是一个非常复杂的过程，受区域气候、地形条件及人类活动等多个因素影响 [1][2][3][4] 。全球气候变暖加快了水循环，改变了山区产汇流过程，导致了冰川积雪融水和降水对径流补给的变化 [5] 。尤其对于降水稀少的干旱地区而言，山区降水和冰川、积雪是河流的主要补给源，气候变暖引起的冰雪加速消融可以在一定时间内补给径流，增大径流量，然而，持续的升温会加快这一重要水资源的萎缩，导致径流过程及水资源量的改变 [6,7] 。在全球变暖的大背景下 [8] ，天山山区气候变暖趋势更为显著，研究表明，过去半个世纪以来天山地区气温正在以 0.34℃/10a 的速度上升，且在 1997 年气温发生突变 [9] ，此后一直处于高位震荡，复杂的地形特征使得天山地区冰雪对气候变化非常敏感，目前针对天山山区及各典型流域积雪面积 [10][11][12][13] 、积雪深度 [14] 、积雪日数 [15] 及融雪期长度 [16] [17] ；赵文宇等基于 MOD10A2 (Terra) 和 MYD10A2 (Aqua) 积雪产品，获取新疆天山年积雪日数并分析了 2002-2014 年积雪日的年际变化以及多年平均积雪日随高程和坡度的变化特征 [15] 。大量研究结果显示，除地形条件之外，温度和降水是影响区域积雪覆盖的最主要气候要素 [18] ，温度影响积雪累积与消融及降水形式，降水则直接影响积雪来源 [19,20] [21,22] 。已有的研究表明近十几年来积雪覆盖面积、积雪期和融雪期长度都呈现强烈的年际波动特征，且不同季节、不同地理位置变化趋势并不一致 [23] 。流域水文过程也对气候和积雪变化产生了明显的响应，其响应除了表现在径流增多之外 [24] ，还表现在径流年内分配规律的改变、极端水文事件的发生频率和强度变化等方面 [7] ，山区水文过程更加复杂，水资源系统也越发脆弱 [25] ，因此，研究气候变化及其对水资源要素的影响对当前乃至未来干旱区水资源的可利用性评估至关重要。开都河流域位于新疆天山南坡，主要依靠冰雪融水和降水补给 [26] ，其中，积雪面积的年内和年际变化直接影响流域径流的季节和年际分配。作为巴音郭楞自治州的母亲河和塔里木河重要的支流，开都河流域的水储量及水文水资源的变化引起了学者的广泛关注，如 Deng 等对开都河流域气候变化对径流的影响研究发现，气温和降水是影响流域径流变化的最主要因素 [27] ； Chen 从气候变化和人类活动 [28] 。目前针对开都河流域的研究主要是侧重于气候变化与径流的关系 [29] [35] ，为进一步研究水文过程对气候变化的响应，本文采用 Zheng 等提出的敏感性系数计算方法 [36] [30] ；降水增加 [37] ，因此，仅十几年的气候数据并不能准确揭示流域气候变化的趋势。针对天山地区气候变化趋势，当前已有较成熟的研究结果，研究发现，自 1998 年以来天山地区温度一直处于高位震荡 [38] ，另外， Fu 等 [39] [41] 。流域径流补给方式包括冰雪融水和降水，其中冰川融水仅占年出山口径流量 15%左右…”

Section: 引言unclassified

天山开都河流域积雪、径流变化及影响因子分析

向燕芸¹,

Yanyun²,

陈亚宁³

et al. 2018

zykx

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Water resources, a key factor, restricted economic and social development and ecological security in arid region of Northwest China. The water resources in arid area mainly come from snow melt water and mountain precipitation. Therefore, studies on the impact of climate on snow cover and runoff in arid region of Northwest China have a significant impact on the water resources management, ecological protection, and economic and social development. Based on MODIS data, the meteorological and hydrologic station data, the present investigation was conducted to analyze the trends of annual snow cover and streamflow variations in the Kaidu River and discuss the relationship between climate change, snow cover, and streamflow. We used Mann-Kendall test, Pearson correlational analysis method, and sensitivity analysis. We found that the total snow cover fraction showed a slightly increasing trend from 2000 to 2016 (-0.017%/a). The annual maximum snow cover increased but the annual minimum snow cover exhibited a decreasing trend. Seasonally, the snow cover decreased in spring and summer, increased in autumn and winter. In the past 45 years (1972-2016), the onset of snowmelt period documented a shift of 10.35 days earlier while ending date did move 7.56 days later. The correlation between snow cover and meteorological variables suggest that the snow cover was mostly affected by temperature in spring and was mostly influenced by precipitation in winter. Both the annual streamflow and peak streamflow exhibited an increasing trend from 2000 to 2016 in a speed of 226 million m 3 per decade. The streamflow is sensitive to the variations of temperature and precipitation in summer, and to the variations of snow cover in spring. Increasing of temperature and precipitation is the primary factor leading the increasing of streamflow.

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Spatial and temporal patterns of climate variations in the Kaidu River Basin of Xinjiang, Northwest China

Cited by 29 publications

References 21 publications

Unraveling the Hydrology of the Glacierized Kaidu Basin by Integrating Multisource Data in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China

Unraveling the Hydrology of the Glacierized Kaidu Basin by Integrating Multisource Data in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China

Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought and Associated Multi-Scale Response to Climate Change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

天山开都河流域积雪、径流变化及影响因子分析

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