Spatial and Temporal Shifts in Historic and Future Temperature and Precipitation Patterns Related to Snow Accumulation and Melt Regimes in Alberta, Canada

Abstract

Shifts in winter temperature and precipitation patterns can profoundly affect snow accumulation and melt regimes. These shifts have varying impacts on local to large-scale hydro-ecological systems and freshwater distribution, especially in cold regions with high hydroclimatic heterogeneity. We evaluate winter climate changes in the six ecozones (Mountains, Foothills, Prairie, Parkland, Boreal, and Taiga) in Alberta, Canada, and identify regions of elevated susceptibility to change. Evaluation of historic trends and future changes in winter climate use high-resolution (~10 km) gridded data for 1950–2017 and projections for the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100) under medium (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios. Results indicate continued declines in winter duration and earlier onset of spring above-freezing temperatures from historic through future periods, with greater changes in Prairie and Mountain ecozones, and extremely short or nonexistent winter durations in future climatologies. Decreases in November–April precipitation and a shift from snow to rain dominate the historic period. Future scenarios suggest winter precipitation increases are expected to predominantly fall as rain. Additionally, shifts in precipitation distributions are likely to lead to historically-rare, high-precipitation extreme events becoming more common. This study increases our understanding of historic trends and projected future change effects on winter snowpack-related climate and can be used inform adaptive water resource management strategies.

Remote Sensing of Local Warming Trend in Alberta, Canada during 2001–2020, and Its Relationship with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations

“…In addition, we observed significant cooling trends in the month of November (see Figure 3e,j) that coincided with other studies reported for the same area for the latter half of the last century [69,70]. Such cooling trends could be associated with the decrease in winter precipitation (including November) in Alberta [71], where less precipitation would potentially cause cooler winter temperatures in some places in Canada [72]. Overall, we found declining LST in the late spring and winter (especially October, November, and February) in most of the subregions; however, those were not significant (see Tables 1 and 2).…”

With warming, spring streamflow peaks are more coupled with vegetation green‐up than snowmelt in the northeastern United States

“…In mid‐high latitude regions, snowpack dynamics also exert a key control on seasonal streamflow discharge distributions. Over the last two decades, it has been well documented that warming has advanced snowmelt timing by decreasing snowpack depth and increasing winter rainfall in both western and eastern North America (Dudley et al, 2017; Ford et al, 2021; Harpold et al, 2012; Hodgkins & Dudley, 2006; Huntington et al, 2004; Mote et al, 2005; Newton et al, 2021). Shallower snowpack and earlier snowmelt may lead to implications for the magnitude and timing of spring streamflow, as well as water availability during summer (Barnett et al, 2005; Creed et al, 2015; Suzuki et al, 2020; Xu et al, 2009; Yang et al, 2003).…”

Future Changes in the Surface Water Balance over Western Canada Using the CanESM5 (CMIP6) Ensemble for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5 Scenario

“…In this study, we investigated the climatological changes in the water balance of this region at three periods in the future. We examined future and historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 [11], and specifically 25 ensemble members (r1i1p1f1 to r25i1p1f1) of the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) [12]. The ensemble members have the same physics and same forcings but different initial conditions.…”