Spatial and Temporal Trends of Rainfall and Temperature in the Amboseli Ecosystem of Kenya

Abstract

This study investigated spatial and temporal trends of rainfall and temperature in the Amboseli ecosystem of Kenya. The analysis were based on historical Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPs) and Climate Hazards group InfraRed Temperature with Station (CHIRTs) data for the period 1960-2014 and the period 2006-2100 for the projections. This data was used due to limitations in the observed station data. Projections of rainfall and temperature were based on Regional Climate Models (RCM) from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) over the Amboseli ecosystem. The long-term annual and seasonal trends of rainfall and temperature were analyzed via Mann-Kendall's statistical test and linear trend analysis. The annual and seasonal rainfall declined slightly between 1960 and 2014 though not significant. However the temperatures increased more in the annual minimum (1.23 °C) compared to the annual maximum (0.79 °C). The maximum temperatures for the October-November-December (OND) season had highest increases of 0.88 °C while the March-April-May (MAM) season showed an increase of 0.69 °C. The highest increase in minimum temperatures of 1.35 °C was recorded for the June-July-August-September season (JJAS), while the least increase was in MAM (1.04°C). Projected rainfall based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2006-2100 varied with RCP 2.6 showing a decline for the four seasons. RCP 4.5 and 8.5 project marginal increase in annual and OND with declines in the MAM and JJAS. Projected maximum and minimum temperature for RCP 2.6 indicate increments of less than 1 °C while for RCP 4.5 the maximum range is between 0.57 °C and 1.85 °Cand minimum is between 0.51 °C to 1.98 °C. RCP 8.5 projected maximum increase are the highest between 1.11°C and 4.34 °C and minimum is between 1.34 °C and 5.26 °C based on period-2030, 2050 and 2070. The increase of temperatures and changes in rainfall can have large impacts on the resources in the savanna dry lands of East Africa especially on its livestock, agriculture, wildlife and pastoral and agro-pastoral communities.

Rainfall and Temperature Trends and Variability in Arid and Semi-arid Lands of Kitui County, Kenya

“…The decreasing trend in rainfall in the study area could result to frequent occurrence of drought incidences causing a significant reduction in crop yields as well as pasture and water shortage for livestock production which are key sources of livelihood in the region. The findings are in consonance with results from a similar study by Aduma et al (2018) which indicated a non-significant declining trend in annual rainfall in the Amboseli Ecosystem of Kenya. A similar trend in annual rainfall was also recorded along the Coastal Tanzania by Mahongo and Francis (2012).…”

“…Similarly, Le and Pricope (2017) reported that CHIRPS dataset had a greater temporal correlation with the in situ station data in Nzoia Basin, Western Kenya. CHIRPS datasets have been used to analyze precipitation trends in similar studies in East Africa (Aduma et al, 2018;Cattani et al, 2021;Gebrechorkos et al, 2019;Kerandi et al, 2017).…”

Historical Climatic Trends and Smallholder Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya

“…Mo s t o f t h e f a r m e r s' perceptions of temperature trends indicated that there was an increase in the number of hot days [16,17]. Similar results showing substantial increase in both Tmin and Tmax in Kenya were also reported by some other researchers [29,33,57,58].…”

“…With increasing trends in annual temperature, there is the need to understand how such trends will affect agricultural systems in the ASALs and how farmers will need to adjust to CC risks such as moisture and heat stress. [58], which established that there was a higher increase in absolute Tmin compared to Tmax in the Amboseli ecosystem during 1960-2014.…”

Sự Ổn Định Trong Quy Luật Biến Thiên Của Một Số Yếu Tố Khí Hậu Ở Đồng Bằng Nam Bộ Trong Bối Cảnh Biến Đổi Khí Hậu

“…Trong một công trình khác, dữ liệu nhiệt độ và lượng bốc hơi nhiều năm cho hệ sinh thái Amboseli ở Kenya được Aduma và cộng sự đánh giá bằng thống kê Mann -Kendall và phân tích xu hướng tuyến tính. Kết quả cho thấy sự gia tăng nhiệt độ và thay đổi lượng mưa có thể tác động lớn đến các nguồn tài nguyên ở các vùng đất khô cằn ở Đông Phi [6]. Đi sâu vào nghiên cứu bản chất và nguyên nhân trong khác biệt khí hậu theo thời gian cho một khu vực, Oscar và cộng sự dựa trên kết quả phân tích tương quan đã đi đến kết luận rằng xu hướng trong một số biến số khí hậu ở vùng Tây Bắc Mexico có liên quan đến sự biến đổi nhiều thập kỷ của hai đại dương lớn cũng như mô hình dòng khí quyển [7].…”