Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951–2005

Abstract

Abstract:The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in the desert region of China (DRC) from 1951 to 2005 were investigated using a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the Mann-Kendall trend test method (M-K method). In addition, the association between variation patterns of precipitation and large-scale circulation were also explored using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The results indicated that the spatial pattern of precipitation was primarily the local climate effect significant type, with the first three EOFs explaining a total of 55Ð3% of the variance, and the large-scale climate system effect type, which explained 9Ð8% of the variance. Prior to the 1970s, the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger, which resulted in abundant precipitation in the Inner Mongolia region. Conversely, the climate of the Xinjiang region was controlled by westerly circulation and had lower precipitation. However, this situation has been reversed since the 1980s. It is predicted that precipitation will decrease by 15-40 and 0-10 mm/year in the Inner Mongolia plateau and southern Xinjiang, respectively, whereas it will likely increase by 10-40 mm/year in northern Xinjiang. Additionally, 58-62% of the annual rainfall occurred during summer in the DRC, with precipitation increasing during spring and summer and decreasing in winter. The intra-annual precipitation is becoming uniform, but the inter-annual variability in precipitation has been increasing in the western portions of the DRC. The probability of precipitation during the study period increased by 30% and 22Ð2% in the extreme-arid zones and arid zones, respectively. Conversely, the probability of precipitation during the study period decreased by 18Ð5% and 37Ð5% in the semi-arid zones and semi-wet zones, respectively. It is predicted that the northwest portion of the DRC will become warmer and wetter, while the central portion will become warmer and drier and the northeast portion will be subjected to drought.

Vegetation dynamics and responses to recent climate change in Xinjiang using leaf area index as an indicator

“…However, many studies have documented a warmer and more humid pattern in northwestern China, which includes arid and semi-arid areas, from the early 1980s (Shi et al, 2002(Shi et al, , 2003(Shi et al, , 2007Chen et al, 2005Chen et al, , 2009Xu et al, 2010). As a http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.05.036 1470-160X/© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.…”

Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China

“…The correlation dimension approach has been widely used to determine if climatic and hydrological time series show chaotic dynamic characteristics (Sivakumar, 2007; Xu et al, 2010). This is important for providing information on embedding the attractor and determining the number of parameters that exist in the evolution of the variable.…”

“…If there are deterministic dynamics in the nonlinear system, the trajectory in the phase space converges towards the “attractor.” The correlation dimension of the attractor is calculated by the G-P method (Grassberger & Procaccia, 1983). For a detailed description of the G-P method, readers are referred to Xu et al (2010). Briefly, however, the expressions are given as: where r and N r are the surveyor’s rod for distance and the number of reference points from N , which is the number of points.…”

“…Coupled climatic and hydrological processes involve complex linear and nonlinear mechanisms and characteristics at both the regional and watershed level (Kantelhardt et al, 2003; Xu et al, 2009; Xu et al, 2010). Hydrological models have been developed to reproduce the runoff process generated by climatic and other variables.…”

Model and Growth Stage Based Variability of the Irrigation Demand of Onion Crops with Predicted Climate Change

“…Studies on the climate change impact on precipitation reveal that there is any general, world-wide validity for precipitation amount, distribution or rather occurrence of precipitation-free periods. Simulated precipitation pattern vary geographically [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19] and annually [20]. In addition, predicted changes in precipitation differ between different climate models [21].…”