Spatial autocorrelation analysis of tourist arrivals using municipal data: A Serbian example

Abstract

Spatial autocorrelation methodologies can be used to reveal patterns and temporal changes of different spatial variables, including tourism arrivals. The research adopts a GIS-based approach to spatially analyse tourist arrivals in Serbia, using Global Moran's I and Anselin's Local Moran's I statistics applied on the level of municipalities. To assess feasibility of this approach the article discusses spatial changes of tourist arrivals in order to identify potentially significant trends of interest for tourism development policy in Serbia. There is a significant spatial inequality in the distribution of tourism arrivals in Serbia that is not adequately addressed in tourism development plans. The results of global autocorrelation suggest the existence of low and decreasing spatial clustering for domestic tourist arrivals and high, relatively stable spatial clustering for international tourists. Local autocorrelation statistics revealed different of domestic and international tourism arrivals. In order to assess feasibility of this approach these results are discussed in their significance to tourism development policy in Serbia.

Territorial dynamics of tourism in Romania: a long-term perspective (1990 – 2016)

“…The territorial dynamics of tourism represent a subject of interest for researchers from multiple fields. Their utility and impact were discussed mainly with reference to tourism policy-making (Stankov et al, 2017;Majewska, 2015;Sarrion-Gavilan et al, 2015;Chhetri et al, 2013), but also in relation with the business sector interests (Luo & Yang, 2013;Chhetri et al, 2013). A high attention was given to the territorial development induced by tourism activities (Schirpke et al, 2017;Salvatore et al, 2018), especially to the role played by tourism on regional disparities (Majewska, 2015;Goh et al 2014;Yang & Wong, 2013;Ivy & Copp, 1999).…”

“…ESDA is defined as 'the collection of techniques to describe and visualise spatial distributions, identify atypical locations (spatial outliers), discover patterns of spatial association (spatial clusters), and suggest different spatial regimes and other forms of spatial instability or spatial non-stationarity' (Anselin, 1998). Applying ESDA in tourism research generally implies computing global and local spatial autocorrelation indexes, which allows the analysis of spatial concentration tendencies (Stankov et al, 2017;Yang & Wong, 2013;Luo & Yang, 2013;Zhang et al, 2011). Global indexes detect spatial tendencies 'from the general perspective by incorporating all samples' while 'the local ones only focuses on the specific relationship in a particular location over space' (Yang & Wong, 2013).…”

“…Researches employing ESDA in the analysis of spatial dynamics of tourism usually follow two main approaches. A first approach is based on providing a diachronic analysis concerning the concentration or dispersion tendencies of tourism activities in a particular territory (Stankov et al, 2017;Sarrion-Gavilan et al, 2015;Yang & Wong, 2013;Zhang et al, 2011). For example, banking on this method, Yang & Wong (2013) identified significant tendencies of concentration for inbound and domestic tourism flows in China during the period 1999-2006 and investigated the tourism hot-spot areas for both types of tourists through local indicators of spatial autocorrelation.…”

“…Tourism activities, by their nature, are susceptible to spatial concentration, since tourism investors locate their businesses in the proximity of tourist attractions (Majewska, 2015). It is thus not surprising that the tendency of tourism to concentrate spatially has been widely studied, with a particular focus on its relevance for tourism policy-making (Stankov et al, 2017;Lau & Koo, 2016;Sarrion-Gavilan et al, 2015;Kang et al, 2014;Chhetri et al, 2013;Zhang et al, 2011). The European Commission (2010) acknowledged the growing economic importance of tourism and highlighted its potential for economic development and social integration, especially on rural, mountainous, and peripheral areas.…”

A subnational assessment of hotel social media metrics: The case of Serbia

“…Hotel business in Serbia has been in the expansion stage in recent years (Stankov et al, 2017). One of the reasons that has significantly contributed, in addition to increasing the number of tourists, the use of online reservation systems and promotion through the Internet and social networks (Inversini & Masiero, 2014).…”