Spatial Dependence of Floods Shaped by Spatiotemporal Variations in Meteorological and Land‐Surface Processes

Brunner, Manuela Irene; Gilleland, Eric; Wood, A. W.; Swain, Daniel L.; Clark, Martyn P.

doi:10.1029/2020gl088000

Cited by 63 publications

(97 citation statements)

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“…In the Columbia river basin and the western part of the upper Missouri basin, widespread flooding is more likely when taking a local instead of a regional perspective. These differences between regional and local estimates can be explained by seasonal differences in flood connectedness within a region (Brunner, Gilleland, et al, 2020). In the Columbia river basin, for example, where discrepancies between regional and local estimates are particularly strong, the seasonal strength of flood connectedness in the Cascades and Rocky Mountains is very distinct.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Catchments in the Cascades show high spatial dependence in winter while those in the Rocky Mountains show high dependence in spring and summer. If such subregions with seasonally distinct flood behaviors (Brunner, Gilleland, et al, 2020) form a river basin, this results in low probabilities of widespread flooding from a regional perspective. In contrast, the local perspective reflects the fact that floods in catchments in the Cascades often co‐occur because of a very expressed flood seasonality, resulting from a concentration of extratropical cyclones in the winter season (Kunkel et al, 2012), and those in the Rocky Mountains also often co‐occur because of snowmelt (Brunner, Gilleland, et al, 2020).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The seasonal susceptibility patterns can be related to spatial dependencies in flood occurrence, which describe the degree of flood connectedness for a pair of sites. These dependencies vary by region and season as they are shaped by meteorological and land‐surface processes (Brunner, Gilleland, et al, 2020). Brunner, Gilleland, et al (2020) have shown that spatial dependencies in winter are highest in the Pacific Northwest, in California, and the Appalachian mountains, that is, catchments in these regions coexperience flooding.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These dependencies vary by region and season as they are shaped by meteorological and land‐surface processes (Brunner, Gilleland, et al, 2020). Brunner, Gilleland, et al (2020) have shown that spatial dependencies in winter are highest in the Pacific Northwest, in California, and the Appalachian mountains, that is, catchments in these regions coexperience flooding. These high dependencies are reflected by the propensity of these regions for widespread flooding in this season (Figures 6b and 7b).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To interpret regional differences in the susceptibility to widespread flooding, we compare the local‐perspective susceptibility estimates to the degree of spatial dependence as described by the flood connectedness measure introduced by Brunner, Gilleland, et al (2020). This connectedness measure quantifies the number of catchments with which a specific catchment coexperiences at least 1% of the total number of flood events; that is, a pair of catchments is said to be connected if they are jointly flooded in 1% of the over all flood events.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How Probable Is Widespread Flooding in the United States?

Brunner

Papalexiou

Clark

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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Widespread flooding can cause major damages and substantial recovery costs. Still, estimates of how susceptible a region is to widespread flooding are largely missing mainly because of the sparseness of widespread flood events in records. The aim of this study is to assess the seasonal susceptibility of regions in the United States to widespread flooding using a stochastic streamflow generator, which enables simulating a large number of spatially consistent flood events. Furthermore, we ask which factors influence the strength of regional flood susceptibilities. We show that susceptibilities to widespread flooding vary regionally and seasonally. They are highest in regions where catchments show regimes with a strong seasonality, that is, the Pacific Northwest, the Rocky Mountains, and the Northeast. In contrast, they are low in regions where catchments are characterized by a weak seasonality and intermittent regimes such as the Great Plains. Furthermore, susceptibility is found to be the highest in winter and spring when spatial flood dependencies are strongest because of snowmelt contributions and high soil moisture availability. We conclude that regional flood susceptibilities emerge in river basins with catchments sharing similar streamflow and climatic regimes.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

How Probable Is Widespread Flooding in the United States?

Brunner

Papalexiou

Clark

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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Rhine flood stories: Spatio‐temporal analysis of historic and projected flood genesis in the Rhine River basin

Rottler

Bronstert

Bürger

et al. 2023

Hydrological Processes

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The genesis of floods in large river basins often is complex. Streamflow originating from precipitation and snowmelt and different tributaries can superimpose and cause high water levels, threatening cities and communities along the riverbanks. For better understanding the mechanisms (origin and composition) of flood events in large and complex basins, we capture and share the story behind major historic and projected streamflow peaks in the Rhine River basin. Our analysis is based on hydrological simulations with the mesoscale Hydrological Model forced with both meteorological observations and an ensemble of climate projections. The spatio-temporal analysis of the flood events includes the assessment and mapping of antecedent liquid precipitation, snow cover changes, generated and routed runoff, areal extents of events, and the above-average runoff from major sub-basins up to 10 days before a streamflow peak. We introduce and assess the analytical setup by presenting the flood genesis of the two well-known Rhine floods that occurred in January 1995 and May 1999. We share our extensive collection of event-based Rhine River flood genesis, which can be used in-and outside the scientific community to explore the complexity and diversity of historic and projected flood genesis in the Rhine basin. An interactive webbased viewer provides easy access to all major historic and projected streamflow peaks at four locations along the Rhine. The comparison of peak flow genesis depending on different warming levels elucidates the role of changes in snow cover and precipitation characteristics in the (pre-)Alps for flood hazards along the entire channel of the Rhine. Furthermore, our results suggest a positive correlation between flood magnitudes and areal extents of an event. Further hydro-climatological research is required to improve the understanding of the climatic impact on the Rhine and beyond.

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Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review

et al. 2021

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Predictions of floods, droughts, and fast drought‐flood transitions are required at different time scales to develop management strategies targeted at minimizing negative societal and economic impacts. Forecasts at daily and seasonal scale are vital for early warning, estimation of event frequency for hydraulic design, and long‐term projections for developing adaptation strategies to future conditions. All three types of predictions—forecasts, frequency estimates, and projections—typically treat droughts and floods independently, even though both types of extremes can be studied using related approaches and have similar challenges. In this review, we (a) identify challenges common to drought and flood prediction and their joint assessment and (b) discuss tractable approaches to tackle these challenges. We group challenges related to flood and drought prediction into four interrelated categories: data, process understanding, modeling and prediction, and human–water interactions. Data‐related challenges include data availability and event definition. Process‐related challenges include the multivariate and spatial characteristics of extremes, non‐stationarities, and future changes in extremes. Modeling challenges arise in frequency analysis, stochastic, hydrological, earth system, and hydraulic modeling. Challenges with respect to human–water interactions lie in establishing links to impacts, representing human–water interactions, and science communication. We discuss potential ways of tackling these challenges including exploiting new data sources, studying droughts and floods in a joint framework, studying societal influences and compounding drivers, developing continuous stochastic models or non‐stationary models, and obtaining stakeholder feedback. Tackling one or several of these challenges will improve flood and drought predictions and help to minimize the negative impacts of extreme events. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Science of Water

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Spatial Dependence of Floods Shaped by Spatiotemporal Variations in Meteorological and Land‐Surface Processes

Cited by 63 publications

References 65 publications

How Probable Is Widespread Flooding in the United States?

How Probable Is Widespread Flooding in the United States?

Rhine flood stories: Spatio‐temporal analysis of historic and projected flood genesis in the Rhine River basin

Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review

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