Spatial Differentiation of the Maximum River Runoff Synchronicity in the Warta River Catchment, Poland

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On the basis of daily precipitation and discharges recorded in 1974–2013 relations between precipitation and runoff in the Kłodzka Valley (KV) in south-western Poland were analyzed. The degree of synchronicity between them was determined using the bivariate Archimedean copulas. This study aims at identifying and then describe in a probabilistic way the precipitation and runoff relations in the area playing an important role in the formation of water resources, but also particularly exposed to flooding. It was found that isolines of the synchronous occurrence of precipitation and total runoff in the Nysa Kłodzka catchment controlled by gauge Kłodzko had a zonal distribution, with the synchronicity values decreasing from south-east to north-west of the study area. This proves that its eastern part is more hydrologically active, compared to the western part, and as such it determines the amount of water resources of the study area. The decrease in synchronicity is influenced by the type and spatial distribution of precipitation, the structure of water supply, and the geological structure of the study area. Moreover, probabilistic methods applied in this research differ from those used in previous research on the hydrology of KV, as we propose using the copula functions. The method presented can be used to evaluate the availability of water resources in areas playing a key role in their formation on different scales.

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Approach to Precipitation-Runoff Relation in a Mountain Catchment: A Case Study of the Kłodzka Valley in Poland

Perz

Sobkowiak

Wrzesiński

2021

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“…The annual runoff in the WRC is also spatially diversified-the highest values, exceeding 200 mm, and locally even 300 mm, are recorded in its northern and southern parts. Noticeably lower runoffs (below 150 mm, locally even below 80 mm) are in the central and western parts [38]. The average annual runoff for the WRC at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge is only 127 mm, which makes this region one of the poorest in Europe in terms of water resources.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 97%

“…According to the division proposed by [39], the rivers of the study area represent three sub-types of nival hydrological regime, namely weakly, moderately, and strongly developed [38]. Rotnicka [40], based on Ward's hierarchical grouping, distinguished 12 types of hydrological period for the rivers of the Odra River basin and the West Pomerania catchments in Poland.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A more detailed analysis corrects this view, taking into account the influence of the SST in the region of [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40] • N, 60-50 • W] on the behavior of the geopotential height over Europe, and thus on the atmospheric circulation. The increase in the SST in this region leads to a relatively strong and highly significant increase in the height of the isobaric surface of 500 hPa (hereinafter referred to as h500) over Europe, including Central Europe.…”

Section: Gridmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Thermal State of the North Atlantic Ocean and Hydrological Droughts in the Warta River Catchment in Poland during 1951–2020

Marsz¹,

Sobkowiak

Styszyńska³

et al. 2023

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This study presents the direct relationships between changes in the annual surface temperature of the North Atlantic (SST) and the number of days per year experiencing low flows in the Warta River catchment (WRC) in Central Europe, Poland, in the multi-annual period of 1951–2020. The number of days experiencing low flows (TLF) was used to describe the conditions of hydrological drought in the WRC. Moderately strong (r~0.5) but statistically highly significant (p < 0.001) relationships were found between TLF and the SST in the subtropical (30–40° N, 60–40° W) and subpolar North Atlantic (70° N, 10° W–10° E). With the increase in the annual SST in these parts of the North Atlantic, the number of days in a year experiencing low flows in the WRC also increased. It was determined that besides synchronous (i.e., in the same year) relationships between TLF and SST, asynchronous relations also occurred: the SST changes were one year ahead of the TLF changes. With the increase in the SST in the subtropical and subpolar North Atlantic, the sunshine duration and air temperature in the WRC increased, while the relative humidity decreased. The relationships between precipitation in the WRC and SST were negative (from −0.04 to −0.14), but statistically insignificant (p > 0.2). This indicates that the impact of SST changes on TLF in the WRC is mainly caused by the shaping of the amount of surface evaporation, which strongly increases in years of high SST, and the climatic water balance becomes negative, resulting in an increase in extremely low flows. The analysis of the causes of these relationships shows that the SST changes in the North Atlantic control, through changes in the height of the geopotential (h500), changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe. In the periods of SST h500 growth over Central Europe, the atmospheric pressure (SLP) increases. That area is more frequently than average under the influence of the Azores High; this leads to an increase in the frequency of anticyclonic weather. A significant increase in the number of TLFs and prolonged periods of hydrological drought in the WRC after 2000 are associated with a strong increase in the SST in the area of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic.

“…The research fits into the trend of analyzing relationships between hydro-and meteorological variables in terms of synchronicity and asynchronicity, described also as, e.g., "synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability", "probability of synchronous or asynchronous occurrence", or "dryness-wetness/rich-poor encounter probability". Such an approach has been used in the analyses of the probability of the co-occurrence of precipitation [48][49][50], runoff and sediment load [51][52][53], the water level of a sea and coastal lakes [54], maximum or average annual discharge/runoff [55][56][57][58][59], precipitation and runoff [60][61][62], flood hazard [62] or water transfer projects [63]. The novelty of this research is its combining of the estimated economic flood losses and rainfall data within one copula-based model, which allows the formulation of spatio-temporal dependencies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood-Triggering Rainfall and Potential Losses—The Copula-Based Approach on the Example of the Upper Nysa Kłodzka River

Perz

Wrzesiński

Budner

et al. 2023

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Floods are natural phenomena, inextricably related to river regimes, which can threaten human health and life, the environment, cultural heritage, economic activity and infrastructure. The aim of the research is to assess the connection between rainfall and river flood risk. The proposed methodology is presented on the example of the upper Nysa Kłodzka River (NKR) catchment and Kłodzko town located on NKR, which are two of the most flood-prone areas in the Odra River basin. The methodology is based on the well-established methods of potential flood losses (PFL) estimation and the copula-based model, allowing an assessment of connections between rainfall and flood losses in a probabilistic way. The results are presented using the ‘synchronicity’ measure. Seventeen significant summer (rainfall-driven) flood waves were selected, for which PFL were estimated and cumulative rainfall was calculated for 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h preceding the flood peak. It was found that the synchronicity of PFL and the 24 h rainfall was the lowest among the analyzed variants, while for the 48 to 120 h rainfall the highest synchronicity was identified at precipitation gauge Podzamek.